2026信用月报之三：3月信用，先止盈后布局-20260301

1. Report Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In early March, it is advisable to take appropriate profit - taking on high - elasticity varieties and wait for the layout opportunity at the end of the month. The bond market in March has intertwined bullish and bearish factors, and the current credit spreads have narrowed to a relatively low historical range. [1][12] - Pay attention to the opportunity of over - decline repair of the constituent bonds of science and technology innovation bonds. If the scale of the science and technology innovation bond ETF stabilizes and rebounds, the constituent bonds may usher in a round of valuation repair market. [4][33] - For bank perpetual and secondary capital bonds (two - tier perpetual bonds), trading desks should be cautious and control the duration. When there is an adjustment in the bond market, seize the opportunity to increase positions. For allocation desks with stable liability ends, they can implement the strategy of "buying more on dips". [6][43] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 3 - month Credit Bonds: Supply Strong, Demand Weak, Appropriate Defense 3.1.1 Early - month Profit - taking on High - elasticity Varieties, Wait for End - month Layout Opportunity - In February, interest rates fluctuated slightly downward. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate once broke through the resistance level but then rebounded. Credit bond yields generally declined, and credit spreads showed a differentiated trend, with long - duration varieties performing better. [1][11] - The current credit spreads are at a relatively low level, especially for high - elasticity varieties. From a seasonal perspective, credit bonds in March usually have strong supply and weak demand, and the probability of credit spread widening is relatively large. [2][13][15] - It is recommended to take profit on high - elasticity and low - cost - performance credit bond varieties in early March and adjust to high - grade medium - and short - duration credit bonds, commercial financial bonds, brokerage bonds, and interest - rate bonds. There may be a certain carry - trade space in March. [3][21] - From the end of March to early April, as the wealth management scale rebounds rapidly, it may be a window period for layout. The layout ideas include allocating products preferred by wealth management, seizing the riding yield at the convex points of the curve, and actively exploring variety spreads. [3][22] 3.1.2 Bank Two - tier Perpetual Bonds: Seize the Opportunity to Increase Positions after Adjustment - In February, the yields of bank two - tier perpetual bonds first declined and then rose, with medium - and long - duration varieties fluctuating greatly. Overall, the yields generally declined, and the spreads showed a differentiated trend. [36][37] - Looking forward, the bond market has increased uncertainties, and two - tier perpetual bonds may face greater valuation fluctuation risks. Trading desks should be cautious, and allocation desks with stable liability ends can implement the "buy - on - dips" strategy. Pay attention to two signals for increasing positions: when the trading yield of 4 - 5 - year large - bank two - tier perpetual bonds reaches the previous high, and when insurance keeps large - scale net buying while funds turn from continuous net selling to net buying. [6][43] 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds: Issuance Interest Rates Declined across the Board, Buying Sentiment Rebounded - In February, the net financing of urban investment bonds was positive but decreased year - on - year. The issuance sentiment weakened in the last week. The issuance proportion of short - duration bonds increased, and the weighted average issuance interest rates declined across the board, with long - duration varieties having a larger decline. [49] - Yields generally declined, with long - duration varieties performing better. Credit spreads showed a differentiated trend. Provincial net financing performance was differentiated, with most provinces having positive net financing. [53][55] - From the perspective of broker transactions, the buying sentiment of urban investment bonds warmed up in February. The overall TKN ratio and low - valuation ratio increased slightly compared with January. [61] 3.3 Industrial Bonds: Supply Shrunk, Yields Generally Declined - In February, the issuance and net financing scale of industrial bonds decreased year - on - year. The issuance sentiment improved in the fourth week. The issuance proportion of 1 - 3 - year and 3 - 5 - year bonds increased, and the issuance interest rates declined across the board, with 1 - 3 - year bonds having a larger decline. [64] - Yields generally declined, with medium - and high - grade long - duration varieties performing better. Credit spreads showed a differentiated trend. The yields of public bonds in various industries generally declined, with 1 - 5 - year AA bonds performing better. [66][69] 3.4 Bank Two - tier Perpetual Bonds: Yields Generally Declined, Medium - and Long - duration Varieties Performed Better - In February, there were no new issuances of bank two - tier perpetual bonds, and the net financing was negative year - on - year. Yields generally declined, with medium - and long - duration varieties performing better. Credit spreads showed a differentiated trend. [72][76] - From the perspective of broker transactions, the number of trading pens decreased significantly due to the Spring Festival holiday. The trading of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks showed different characteristics. [80]