有色周报：地缘溢价抬升，战略金属表现可期-20260301

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical premiums are rising, and the performance of strategic metals is expected to be promising. The ongoing risks from the Israel-Iran conflict are significant, which is likely to support precious metal prices due to their safe-haven attributes. In the industrial metals sector, there was a substantial accumulation of copper and aluminum inventories during the Spring Festival. As downstream production resumes, the demand during the peak season will be tested, with a focus on the speed of inventory reduction post-holiday, which will determine the strength of industrial product prices [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Geopolitical premiums are increasing, and strategic metals are expected to perform well. The recent military actions between the US and Israel against Iran have led to a halt in oil tanker movements in the Strait of Hormuz, which may elevate inflation expectations due to rising oil prices. The ongoing conflict poses uncontrollable risks, supporting precious metal prices. In the industrial metals sector, significant inventory accumulation was noted during the Spring Festival, and the demand will be evaluated as production resumes [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 9.77%, ranking second among all industries [27][19] 3. Precious Metals - Precious metals are supported by rising geopolitical premiums. As of February 27, SHFE gold rose by 3.41% to 1,147.90 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 4.12% to 5,280.00 USD per ounce. The inventory levels for SHFE gold decreased slightly, while SPDR gold holdings increased by 726,000 ounces [14][30][57] 4. Copper - Copper prices increased by 3.53% to 103,920 CNY per ton on SHFE, with significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. The global visible copper inventory totaled approximately 1.4545 million tons, with a notable increase in domestic copper social inventory [17][72][28] 5. Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose by 2.76% to 23,835 CNY per ton on SHFE. Concerns over supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions are expected to support aluminum prices. The average profit for the aluminum industry is around 7,151.65 CNY per ton [16][85][87]