Orient Securities·2026-03-01 15:16Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" and the rating is maintained [5] Core Viewpoints - The upcoming peak season is anticipated to improve steel demand, supported by macro policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply [8] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a list of companies that meet the new steel industry standards, indicating a shift towards high-quality development in the sector [12] - The successful operation of the Simandou iron ore project is expected to lower production costs for steel manufacturers and enhance their profitability [12] Supply - The average daily output of molten iron this week was 2.33 million tons, showing a slight week-on-week increase of 1.21%, while rebar production decreased by 2.40% to 1.65 million tons [13][15] - The capacity utilization rate for long-process rebar increased slightly by 0.26 percentage points, while short-process rebar utilization decreased by 5.31 percentage points [15] Inventory - Total social and steel mill inventories increased significantly by 27.96% week-on-week, with a total of 12.96 million tons [21] - Rebar inventory rose by 34.15% week-on-week, while the overall inventory level remains lower compared to the previous year [21] Demand - The apparent consumption of five major steel products totaled 5.65 million tons this week, reflecting a significant decrease of 18.06% [23][24] - Rebar consumption saw the largest decline, dropping by 67.08% week-on-week [24] Cost and Profitability - The cost of long-process rebar decreased slightly by 0.48% week-on-week, while short-process costs increased by 2.95% [30][31] - Long-process rebar profitability increased by 16 yuan, while short-process profitability decreased by 97 yuan [30] Steel Prices - The overall steel price index fell by 0.14% this week, with all steel product price indices showing a decline [35][36] - The price of hot-rolled steel decreased by 0.37% to 3,243 yuan per ton [35] Sector Performance - The steel sector saw a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.98% and the Shenwan Steel Index increasing by 12.27% [40][41] - Among the steel stocks, Changbao Co. had the highest increase [46]