煤炭行业周报：海外供给扰动加剧，煤价淡季不淡可期-20260301

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry, indicating an expected relative performance above the market index [2][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that overseas supply disruptions, combined with domestic regulatory measures, are likely to support coal prices even during the off-peak season. It anticipates that coal prices may not decline as expected during this period [6][8]. - As of February 28, 2026, coal prices at Qinhuangdao port reached 745 RMB/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.9% and a 7.3% increase compared to the previous year [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic recovery and macro policies that could influence actual demand release, as well as the impact of safety regulations on production in major coal-producing regions [6]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that coal consumption in 2025 grew by 0.1%, with thermal power generation declining by 0.7%, accounting for 51.4% of total energy consumption, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - Indonesian coal production has faced delays due to regulatory approvals, leading to significantly low coal inventories at power plants, averaging only 10 days of supply, which is below the standard of 25 days [6]. Price Trends - The report indicates that coal prices have continued to rise post-holiday, with expectations that the off-peak season may not see a decline in prices due to ongoing overseas disruptions and stringent domestic safety regulations [6][8]. - The average daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was reported at 4.01 million tons, a decrease of 31.2% year-on-year, while average inventory levels increased by 8.3% [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively positioning in coal sector opportunities, particularly in companies that are well-balanced in terms of risk and reward, such as Yancoal Energy, China Coal Energy, and Shenhua Group [8]. - It also highlights companies with relatively high profit elasticity in coking coal, including Mongol Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal, as well as those benefiting from coal capacity reserve policies and safety upgrades [8].