Changjiang Securities·2026-03-01 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the shipping industry [10]. Core Insights - The oil shipping industry is expected to see further improvement in demand due to escalating US-Iran conflicts and the widening risks of closure in the Strait of Hormuz. If the conflict eases, it could lead to a normalization of crude oil transportation demand, benefiting the industry. On the supply side, the disruption caused by Korea's Changjin Shipping, which has increased its controlled capacity to 118 vessels (16% of the compliant market share) while delaying cargo acceptance, is limiting available capacity in the spot market, driving freight rates to new highs. Overall, the report continues to recommend core stocks such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy [2][8][30]. Summary by Sections Freight Rate Trends - The average VLCC-TCE from Clarksons increased by 40.1% to $200,000 per day. The SCFI index for foreign trade shipping rose by 6.5% to 1,333 points, while the PDCI index for domestic trade shipping fell by 5.6% to 1,173 points. The BDI index increased by 4.7% to 2,140 points [6][19][25]. Stock Performance - In the A-share market, the top five shipping companies by stock price increase were China Merchants Energy Shipping (33.2%), COSCO Shipping Energy (21.4%), China Merchants South Oil (16.1%), Jinjiang Shipping (9.1%), and Ningbo Shipping (7.9%). In the overseas market, the top five were INTERNATIONAL SEAWAYS (11.9%), DHT Holdings (11.7%), SCORPIO TANKERS (10.4%), TORM (9.7%), and Frontline (9.3%) [7][26][29]. Current Events - The report highlights the increased risk of closure in the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iran conflict, recalling the volatility of the oil shipping market during the Iran-Iraq war. Short-term disruptions and risk premiums are expected to push freight rates higher, while long-term closure of the strait is deemed unlikely, with more focus on disrupting shipping efficiency. High oil prices may lead to alternative exports from countries like the US, extending shipping distances [8][30].