如何展望钢铁上涨行情的持续性？

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [8] Core Insights - The steel sector has shown a leading increase, raising concerns about the sustainability of this upward trend. It is believed that during the "golden March and silver April" peak season, steel prices and the steel sector may find it easier to rise than to fall, with further catalysts needed post-peak [1][4] - Historically, the steel sector has rarely experienced sustained increases due to a lack of corresponding rises in steel prices. Positive expectations have primarily catalyzed the equity side, but the weak fundamentals and pessimistic sentiment have made it difficult to realize price increases. The current peak season is expected to see a higher probability of steel price increases, driven by three main factors: sufficient bottoming, production restrictions, and overseas geopolitical conflicts [4][5] Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Recovery - The resumption of work and production has been stable, with a year-on-year increase in the national resumption rate of 8.9% and a labor working rate increase of 15.5%. The funding availability rate has significantly improved, rising by 9.4 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Demand is steadily recovering, with apparent consumption of five major steel products showing a year-on-year decrease of 7.43% but a month-on-month increase of 29.58%. Long products saw a month-on-month increase of 55.59%, while flat products increased by 21.38% [3] - Supply is also recovering, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.41% in the production of five major steel products, and daily molten iron production rising to 2.3328 million tons, an increase of 2.79 thousand tons per day [3] Factors Influencing Price Trends 1. Sufficient Bottoming: The current winter storage accumulation is the weakest in recent years, with total inventory at a near low, indicating a cautious and pessimistic sentiment in the industry. However, low inventory may alleviate post-holiday destocking pressure, and price bottoms suggest a more adequate price adjustment [4][5] 2. Production Restrictions: The core of production reduction and capacity elimination in the steel sector is not about whether to do it, but how to do it. Policies have clarified the need for production cuts, but past efforts have been underwhelming due to execution challenges. The new differentiated production restriction policy aims to evaluate steel companies based on recognized standards, promoting a fairer approach [5] 3. Overseas Geopolitical Conflicts: Recent escalations in Middle Eastern risks may lead to price increases in related commodities and heightened global inflation expectations, which could catalyze steel prices, especially those at the bottom [5]