债市微观结构跟踪：股债、商品比价升至过热区间

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer in the bond market dropped by 7 percentage points to 53% this period. The quantile values of comparison - based indicators continued to rise, while most other indicator quantile values declined. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 35% [3][15][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Micro - trading Thermometer Reading - The "Guojin Securities Fixed - Income Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped by 7 percentage points to 53% compared with the previous period. The quantile values of comparison - based indicators such as stock - bond, commodity, and real - estate comparison increased by 12, 8, and 8 percentage points respectively. Only a few indicators like TL/T long - short ratio, fund duration and divergence, and allocation disk strength had a slight increase in quantile values. Many other indicators' quantile values declined, and currently, the only indicator with high congestion is the bond fund profit - taking pressure [3][15]. 3.2 Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range - Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 7 (35%), the number in the neutral range decreased to 5 (25%), and the number in the cold range increased to 8 (40%). The all - market turnover rate, institutional leverage, and listed company wealth management purchase volume dropped from the neutral to the cold range, while the stock - bond and commodity comparison both rose from the neutral to the over - heated range [4][18]. 3.3 1Y Treasury Bond Turnover Rate - In the trading heat - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 50%, the proportion in the neutral range dropped significantly to 17%, and the proportion in the cold range increased to 33%. Only the TL/T long - short ratio quantile value increased by 5 percentage points to 88%, while the institutional leverage and all - market turnover rate quantile values decreased by 26 and 19 percentage points respectively, both dropping from the neutral to the cold range. The 1/10Y and 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate quantile values also decreased by 25 and 13 percentage points [6][21]. 3.4 Wide - money Expectation - In the institutional behavior - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 13%, the proportion in the neutral range decreased to 25%, and the proportion in the cold range increased to 63%. The quantile value of the fund - small and medium - sized bank purchase volume dropped significantly by 69 percentage points from the over - heated to the cold range; the quantile value of the listed company wealth management purchase volume dropped by 5 percentage points to 38%, from the neutral to the cold range. In addition, the quantile value of the allocation disk strength increased by 12 percentage points, while the quantile values of the fund's purchase of ultra - long bonds and the money tightness expectation decreased by 18 and 12 percentage points respectively [7][25]. 3.5 Policy Spread - The policy spread remained at - 2bp, with the quantile value dropping by 6 percentage points to 86%, still in the over - heated range. The credit spread and the Agricultural Development - National Development spread remained basically the same as before, at 49bp and 0bp respectively, while the IRS - 3M Shibor spread slightly widened by 1bp to - 1bp. The average of the three spreads remained at 16bp, with the quantile value dropping by 3 percentage points to 66%, still in the neutral range [8][29]. 3.6 Consumer Goods Comparison Quantile Value - The proportion of comparison - based indicators in the over - heated range increased to 50%, the proportion in the cold range decreased to 25%, and the proportion in the neutral range remained at 25%. The quantile values of the stock - bond and commodity comparison increased by 12 and 8 percentage points to 76% and 70% respectively, both rising from the neutral to the over - heated range; the real - estate comparison quantile value increased by 8 percentage points to 65% [9][29].