红利风格择时周报(0224-0227)-20260302
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-02 01:09
- The Dividend Style Timing Model's comprehensive factor value for the week of 20260224 to 20260227 was -0.10, turning slightly negative after being positive for two consecutive weeks. The previous week's factor value (20260209 to 20260213) was 0.09[1][4][6] - The factor value's slight fluctuation around the zero axis is normal, indicating a potential key point for style switching, which requires continuous observation to confirm successful switching[1][4][6] - The most significant marginal change was the recent decline in US Treasury yields, which increased the suppressive effect on dividends. Meanwhile, market sentiment improved, reducing the excess performance of dividends, leading to a slight decrease in the model score to negative[7] - The model's score was negatively impacted by the decline in US Treasury yields and the recovery in industry sentiment, while the low market sentiment and strong dividend momentum contributed positively to the dividend style[7] - The updated factor values for various components as of 20260227 are as follows: China Non-Manufacturing PMI: Services (-0.13), China M2 YoY (0.21), US 10-Year Treasury Yield (-0.49), Dividend Relative Net Value (0.54), CSI Dividend Yield - 10-Year China Bond Yield (0.03), Net Financing Purchase (-1.59), and Industry Average Prosperity (1.12)[11]