股指期货：地缘扰动重新带来回调买机

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the market oscillated upward during the four trading days after the Spring Festival, and the Wind All - A Index hit a new high in this round of rebound on Friday. The core drivers of the market are multi - dimensional, including the absence of black swan events during the Spring Festival, the expected profit - making effect brought by hot topics such as robots and travel, the anticipation of policy benefits due to the approaching Two Sessions, and certain changes in overseas tariffs [1]. - In March, the index trend will face more uncertainties overall. However, the sudden Middle East conflict may bring certain callback buying opportunities. In terms of uncertainties, the Two Sessions in early March are not expected to bring obvious super - expected positive factors. For the technology theme, it is difficult to resume an upward trend without technological or application innovation. The Fed's new chairman selection, interest rate cuts, and balance - sheet reduction trends are still unknown. The consumption performance during the Spring Festival did not show significant improvement signals, and the economic trend after entering the "Golden March and Silver April" real - economy verification period remains to be observed. In the short term, the tense Middle East geopolitical situation suppresses risk appetite, but the substantial impact is limited except in the oil and gas and transportation sectors. Considering the stable political and economic situation during the Two Sessions in China, there is a callback buying opportunity if the market corrects due to risk - preference disturbances. In general, the market may show a wide - range oscillating trend in March [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: Last week, the market oscillated upward after the Spring Festival. The Wind All - A Index hit a new high in this round of rebound on Friday. Among sectors, steel, environmental protection, and non - ferrous metals led the gains, while media, non - bank finance, and commercial retail led the losses [1]. - Driving Factors: The core drivers include the absence of black swan events during the Spring Festival, the expected profit - making effect from hot topics like robots and travel, the anticipation of policy benefits due to the approaching Two Sessions, and certain changes in overseas tariffs [1]. - Future Outlook: In March, the index trend will face more uncertainties. There may be callback buying opportunities due to the sudden Middle East conflict. The Two Sessions in early March are not expected to bring obvious super - expected positive factors. The technology theme has difficulty in resuming an upward trend without innovation. The Fed's policy and the economic trend after the "Golden March and Silver April" remain to be observed. The short - term impact of the Middle East situation on risk appetite is limited except in some sectors. If the market corrects due to risk - preference disturbances, there is a buying opportunity, and the market may show a wide - range oscillating trend in March [2]. - Attention Factors: The formulation and implementation of the Two Sessions and related plans in March, the domestic economy, the Fed's policy direction, and geopolitical situation changes [3]. 3.2 Strategy Suggestions - Short - term Strategy: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 91 points/114 points, 74 points/45 points, 179 points/251 points, 221 points/294 points respectively [4]. - Trend Strategy: Buy on dips. The core operating range of the IF2603 main contract is expected to be between 4596 and 4808 points; the IH2603 main contract between 2969 and 3106 points; the IC2603 main contract between 8300 and 8948 points; and the IM2603 main contract between 8233 and 8873 points [4]. - Cross - variety Strategy: Hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [5]. 3.3 Market Data Review - Global Stock Indexes: Last week, the Dow Jones Index fell 1.31%, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.44%, and the Nasdaq Index fell 0.95% in the US stock market. In the European stock market, the UK FTSE 100 Index rose 2.09%, the German DAX Index rose 0.09%, and the French CAC40 Index rose 0.77%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 Index rose 3.56% and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.82% [8]. - Domestic Indexes: Since 2025, the growth rates of major domestic indexes are as follows: the ChiNext Index increased by 54.6%, the CSI 500 by 51.2%, the CSI 1000 by 43.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 39.2%, the Small and Medium - cap Board Index by 38.4%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 24.2%, the CSI 300 by 19.7%, and the SSE 50 by 13.2%. Last week, the CSI 1000 rose 4.34%, the CSI 500 rose 4.32%, the Small and Medium - cap Board Index rose 2.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.80%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.98%, the CSI 300 rose 1.08%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.05%, and the SSE 50 rose 0.17% [8]. - Spot Market: In the CSI 300 index, the materials, telecommunications, and energy sectors led the gains, while the finance and optional consumption sectors led the losses. In the CSI 500 index, the raw materials, energy, and public utility sectors led the gains [10]. - Stock Index Futures: Last week, the IC main contract of stock index futures had the largest increase and the largest amplitude. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures rebounded [10][11]. - Index Valuation: The TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index is 16.97 times, the CSI 300 Index is 14.05 times, the SSE 50 Index is 11.54 times, the CSI 500 Index is 37.81 times, and the CSI 1000 Index is 50.61 times [12][14]. - Market Capital: The balance of margin trading in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are provided. The capital interest rate was flat last week, and the central bank had a net injection [15][16].