金信期货日刊-20260302

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Shanghai Silver futures is high - volatility shock, with a mid - term bullish view. Do not blindly chase high prices. In the short term, operate with high - selling and low - buying and light positions with stop - loss. In the mid - term, due to the continuous supply - demand gap, the recovery of industrial demand, and the expected decline in real interest rates, gradually lay out long positions while strictly controlling positions and leverage risks [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Categories 3.1 Hot Focus - Shanghai Silver futures prices are rising. In the short term, it will follow London Silver to fluctuate widely in the range of $70 - 100 per ounce, with the core support for domestic prices at 19,000 yuan per kilogram and the strong pressure area at 25,000 yuan per kilogram. The mid - term logic is bullish, mainly due to factors such as the supply - demand gap, the recovery of industrial demand, and the expected decline in real interest rates [2][3][4] 3.2 Trading Reference | Variety | Code | Expected Range | Trend | Attention Direction | 7 - day ATR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coking Coal | JM2605 | 1071 - 1102 | Oscillating bearish | Look short on rallies | 31 | | Iron Ore | I2605 | 746 - 758 | Oscillating bullish | Look long on dips | 12 | | Glass | FG605 | 1051 - 1073 | Oscillating | High - selling and low - buying | 22 | | Soda Ash | SA605 | 1187 - 1210 | Oscillating bullish | Look long on dips | 23 | | CSI 1000 | IM2603 | 8478 - 8620 | Oscillating bullish | Look long on dips | 142 | | SSE 50 | IF2603 | 4696 - 4752 | Oscillating bullish | Look long on dips | 56 | | Shanghai Gold | AU2604 | 1140 - 1165 | Oscillating bullish | Look long on dips | 25 | | Shanghai Silver | AG2604 | 22548 - 24117 | Oscillating bullish | Look long on dips | 1569 | | Alumina | AO2605 | 2690 - 2767 | Oscillating bearish | Look short on rallies | 77 | | Caustic Soda | SH605 | 2085 - 2141 | Oscillating bearish | Look short on rallies | 56 | | PTA | TA2605 | 5218 - 5328 | Oscillating bullish | Look long on dips | 110 | | Lithium Carbonate | LC2505 | 172580 - 184080 | Oscillating bullish | Look long on dips | 11500 | | Pulp | SP2605 | 5226 - 5292 | Oscillating bullish | Look long on dips | 66 | [6] 3.3 Technical Analysis 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - Today, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and moved higher, oscillating upward throughout the day, while the ChiNext Index oscillated at a low level. Technically, the 60 - minute chart maintains the upper edge of the box - shaped oscillation, with a short - cycle downward trend. In operation, buy on dips and be cautious about chasing high prices [9][10] 3.3.2 Gold - Affected by the holiday rise in overseas markets, gold opened sharply higher and oscillated throughout the day, with an overall bullish - oscillating view [15] 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Australia and Brazil's shipments maintain a normal rhythm, and there is still an expectation of a loose supply in the medium - to - long - term due to the mine production capacity release cycle. On the demand side, steel mills resume production after the holiday, but the start of terminal demand still takes time. Technically, the trend remains unchanged, and a bearish view is maintained [17][18] 3.3.4 Glass - The daily melting volume slightly decreased, and during the seasonal off - season, the factory inventory increased again during the holiday. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the holiday. Technically, the recent trend is unclear, and it should be viewed as a wide - range oscillation [21][22] 3.3.5 Methanol - Methanol is difficult to continue to rise sharply after a spike. The core reason is that its supply - demand pattern does not support continuous price hikes. The domestic methanol plant operating rate remains high, and the supply - side pressure has not eased. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation at ports after the holiday, which suppresses prices [24] 3.3.6 Pulp - The trading sentiment in the pulp spot market is average, and the inventory at domestic ports continues to increase. It will take time to digest the port inventory after the holiday. Downstream paper mills are gradually resuming work, and some paper enterprises have issued price increase notices. The local price inversion of offset paper and coated paper is serious, and the futures market has shown an interval - oscillation consolidation trend recently [26]