能源化工日报-20260302

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap from Iran. Considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the main operation idea is to make a medium - term layout, but wait for the end of the geopolitical situation to eliminate tail risks [4]. - For methanol, the downward momentum remains, but the negative factors have weakened marginally, so the downward space is limited. The main idea is to go long on dips in the medium - term [7]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected production increase at the end of January, the fundamental negative expectations are coming, so it is recommended to short [9]. - For rubber, it is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is recommended to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609. If RU is below 17000, it needs to be treated with caution [14][15]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is strong supply and weak demand, and the fundamentals are poor. The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral level, but the supply reduction is small, the output is at a historical high, the domestic demand has not fully recovered from the off - season, and the export is the only short - term support [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, the valuation upward repair space is shrinking. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, the port inventory of styrene is continuously accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been greatly repaired, and it can be gradually taken profit [21]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has decreased. The "moderate production increase" of OPEC+ has led to an oscillating crude oil price. The spot price of polyethylene has decreased, and the PE valuation still has downward space. The coal - based inventory has been greatly reduced, which supports the price. After the Spring Festival, the demand for agricultural film raw materials begins to decrease, and the overall operating rate may rebound [24]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has decreased. The EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventory, and the supply surplus may ease. There is no production capacity release plan in the first half of 2026, and the demand - side downstream operating rate rebounds seasonally. The overall inventory pressure may ease, and it is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [27]. - For PX, the current load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans with a low overall load. In the short term, PX is in a inventory - accumulating pattern. In March, as PX enters the maintenance season and PTA devices restart unexpectedly, PX will gradually enter the inventory - reducing cycle. The medium - term pattern is good, and it is recommended to go long on dips following the crude oil [29]. - For PTA, it is difficult to turn into an inventory - reducing cycle as the maintenance expectation decreases. The PTA processing fee has declined, and the short - term callback is expected to be in place. The PXN has回调 to a neutral level, and there is still room for valuation increase. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX and grasp the rhythm [34]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, the import is expected to decrease in March, but the port inventory accumulation pressure is still large due to the ongoing recovery of downstream demand. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the medium - term. The valuation is currently neutral to low, and there is a risk of rebound due to the tense situation in Iran and the rebound of coal prices [36]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: The main contract of INE crude oil futures closed up 2.20 yuan/barrel, an increase of 0.45%, at 488.40 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products: high - sulfur fuel oil closed down 29.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.97%, at 2960.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 35.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.01%, at 3500.00 yuan/ton. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 0.12 million barrels to 11.02 million barrels, a 1.07% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.66 million barrels to 16.64 million barrels, a 4.15% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.54 million barrels to 5.46 million barrels, a 21.96% decrease; naphtha inventory decreased by 0.29 million barrels to 5.55 million barrels, a 4.93% decrease; aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.95 million barrels to 6.59 million barrels, a 12.55% decrease; the overall refined oil inventory decreased by 1.99 million barrels to 45.27 million barrels, a 4.21% decrease [2][3]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The current oil price has priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is an Iranian supply gap. Considering Venezuela's expected over - performance in production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the main operation idea is medium - term layout, but wait for the end of the geopolitical situation to eliminate tail risks [4]. Methanol - Market Information: In terms of regional spot prices, Jiangsu decreased by 35 yuan/ton, Lunan remained unchanged, Henan decreased by 20 yuan/ton, Hebei remained unchanged, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The main contract of futures decreased by 53.00 yuan/ton, at 2179 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit increased by 29 yuan [6]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The downward momentum of methanol remains, but the negative factors have weakened marginally, so the downward space is limited. The main idea is to go long on dips in the medium - term [7]. Urea - Market Information: In terms of regional spot prices, Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast remained unchanged, Hubei increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 37 yuan/ton. The main contract of futures increased by 11 yuan/ton, at 1847 yuan/ton [8]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected production increase at the end of January, the fundamental negative expectations are coming, so it is recommended to short [9]. Rubber - Market Information: Due to the conflict between the US and Iran, the prices of crude oil and naphtha are expected to rise, and the butadiene rubber futures are expected to be driven upwards. Rubber RU and NR are expected to oscillate strongly. The bulls think that the rubber production in Southeast Asia may be limited, the rubber usually rises in the second half of the year, and the demand in China is expected to improve. The bears think that the macro - economic outlook is uncertain, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. As of February 26, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 32.30%, 18.78 percentage points higher than last week and 36.25 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 38.35%, 22.04 percentage points higher than last week and 43.79 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of February 23, 2026, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 136.6 tons, a 7 - ton increase and a 5.4% increase from the previous period. As of February 24, 2026, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 6.28 tons to 67.21 tons compared with before the Spring Festival. In terms of spot prices, Thai standard mixed rubber was 15900 (- 100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 2050 (- 10) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 2050 (- 10) US dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 10000 (+ 50) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene rubber was 12200 (0) yuan [11][12][13]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is recommended to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609. If RU is below 17000, it needs to be treated with caution [14][15]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC05 contract decreased by 63 yuan, at 4792 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4610 (- 70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 182 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 138 (- 1) yuan/ton. In terms of cost, the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2250 (- 50) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 735 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 705 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 634 (+ 3) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 82.1%, unchanged from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 81.7%, a 0.3% decrease from the previous period; the ethylene method was 83.2%, a 0.7% increase from the previous period. The overall downstream operating rate was 17.1%, a 17.1% increase from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 50.4 tons (- 0.1), and the social inventory was 135.3 tons (+ 1) [16]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The domestic supply - demand situation is strong supply and weak demand, and the fundamentals are poor. The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral level, but the supply reduction is small, the output is at a historical high, the domestic demand has not fully recovered from the off - season, and the export is the only short - term support [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: In terms of fundamentals, the cost - side price of East China pure benzene was 6080 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan decrease; the closing price of the active contract of pure benzene was 6125 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan decrease; the pure benzene basis was - 45 yuan/ton, a 66 - yuan decrease. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 7700 yuan/ton, a 75 - yuan decrease; the closing price of the active contract of styrene was 7524 yuan/ton, a 46 - yuan decrease; the basis was 176 yuan/ton, a 29 - yuan weakening; the BZN spread was 151.5 yuan/ton, a 15.5 - yuan decrease; the profit of non - integrated EB devices was - 83.7 yuan/ton, a 2.65 - yuan increase; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 74.24%, a 3.16% increase; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 15.81 tons, a 6.19 - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S was 30.35%, a 7.47% decrease; the PS operating rate was 49.40%, a 0.30% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 12.18%, a 35.84% decrease, and the ABS operating rate was 70.00%, a 1.10% increase [20]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, the valuation upward repair space is shrinking. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, the port inventory of styrene is continuously accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been greatly repaired, and it can be gradually taken profit [21]. Polyethylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract was 6597 yuan/ton, a 140 - yuan decrease; the spot price was 6415 yuan/ton, a 120 - yuan decrease; the basis was - 113 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a 0.27% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 37.97 tons, a 5.67 - ton increase; the inventory of traders was 2.32 tons, a 0.23 - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 33.73%, a 4.03% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 75 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan decrease [23]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The futures price has decreased. The "moderate production increase" of OPEC+ has led to an oscillating crude oil price. The spot price of polyethylene has decreased, and the PE valuation still has downward space. The coal - based inventory has been greatly reduced, which supports the price. After the Spring Festival, the demand for agricultural film raw materials begins to decrease, and the overall operating rate may rebound [24]. Polypropylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract was 6611 yuan/ton, a 119 - yuan decrease; the spot price was 6605 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan decrease; the basis was 64 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a 0.01% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 41.58 tons, a 1.49 - ton increase; the inventory of traders was 18.32 tons, a 0.02 - ton decrease; the port inventory was 6.37 tons, a 0.03 - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 49.84%, a 2.24% decrease. The LL - PP spread was - 14 yuan/ton, a 21 - yuan decrease; the PP5 - 9 spread was - 16 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan increase [25][26]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The futures price has decreased. The EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventory, and the supply surplus may ease. There is no production capacity release plan in the first half of 2026, and the demand - side downstream operating rate rebounds seasonally. The overall inventory pressure may ease, and it is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [27]. PX - Market Information: The PX05 contract increased by 12 yuan, at 7394 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 1 US dollar, at 932 US dollars. The basis was 43 yuan (- 4), and the 5 - 7 spread was - 30 yuan (- 18). The Chinese PX load was 92.4%, a 0.4% increase; the Asian load was 84.9%, a 1.2% increase. In terms of devices, there were few domestic changes. The maintenance plan of Jinling Petrochemical was postponed, and Zhejiang Petrochemical planned to shut down one line in March. Overseas, a Kuwaiti device restarted. The PTA load was 76.6%, a 1.8% increase. In terms of devices, one unit of Yisheng New Materials was operating at 50% capacity, and one unit restarted. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 33.9 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of February, a 12.4 - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of December was 465 tons, a 19 - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 299 US dollars (- 14), the South Korean PX - MX was 164 US dollars (+ 6), and the naphtha crack spread was 114 US dollars (+ 17) [28]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The current PX load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans with a low overall load. In the short term, PX is in a inventory - accumulating pattern. In March, as PX enters the maintenance season and PTA devices restart unexpectedly, PX will gradually enter the inventory - reducing cycle. The medium - term pattern is good, and it is recommended to go long on dips following the crude oil [29]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA05 contract decreased by 10 yuan, at 5250 yuan. The