丁二烯橡胶：轮胎环比去库

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions, important information, logical factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for the rubber market, including BR butadiene rubber and RU/NR natural rubber [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Market Conditions - BR Butadiene Rubber: The price of BR butadiene rubber fluctuates. For example, on March 2, 2026, the BR main 05 contract closed at 12,780 points, up 115 points or +0.91%. The prices in different regions also vary, such as Shandong, East China, and South China [1] - RU/NR Natural Rubber: The prices of RU and NR also fluctuate. On March 2, 2026, the RU main 05 contract closed at 16,990 points, down 165 points or -0.96%; the NR main 05 contract closed at 13,735 points, down 125 points or -0.90% [2] Important Information - European Passenger Car Market: In January 2026, the EU passenger car market sales decreased by 3.9% to 799,625 vehicles. The market share of pure electric vehicles reached 19.3%, up from 14.9% in the previous year, while the combined market share of gasoline and diesel vehicles dropped to 30.1% from 39.5% last year [2][7] - US Tire Import: In 2025, the US imported 286.15 million tires, a 4.8% year - on - year increase. The import from China decreased by 15%, while that from Thailand increased by 10% [11] - Global Natural Rubber Market: The ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber market will be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year in 2026. The global natural rubber production is expected to grow by 2.4% to 15.2 million tons in 2026 [19] Logical Analysis - Macroeconomic Factors: In January, the domestic M1 - M2 scissors gap rebounded slightly, which is slightly positive for commodities. The ZEW global auto industry index declined in February, slightly negative for commodities [2][3][7] - Inventory Factors: The BR contract warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 5.7% to 18,540 tons as of last Friday, and the total inventory was 40,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 128.3%. The domestic butadiene port inventory decreased to 37,200 tons in February, with a narrowing increase rate [3][12] - Production Factors: The domestic high - cis butadiene rubber production capacity utilization rate increased to 80.3% in February, a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. The domestic all - steel tire production line start - up rate increased to 29.2%, a year - on - year increase of 36.6% [7] Trading Strategies - Single - side Trading: For example, on March 2, 2026, the BR04 contract was recommended to reduce positions and wait and see; the BR main 05 contract was recommended to hold long positions, with the stop - loss set at 12,605 points [3] - Arbitrage Trading: For the BR2605 - RU2605 (2 lots vs 1 lot) spread, it was recommended to enter the market at an appropriate time, with the stop - loss set at - 4,490 points [3] - Options Trading: It was recommended to wait and see [3]