华联期货月报：人民币兑美元汇率创新高，上海公布楼市新政-20260302

Report Overview The report is a macro monthly report from Hualian Futures, covering various aspects of the economy including foreign exchange, real estate, prices, trade, investment, and economic indicators in China and the US. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Foreign Exchange: After the Spring Festival, the RMB strengthened against the US dollar, driven by both external (Fed's rate - cut cycle and US policy uncertainty) and internal (resilient domestic economy and post - Spring Festival corporate settlement demand) factors. The central bank adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio to prevent rapid RMB appreciation [7]. - Real Estate: Shanghai introduced new real estate policies in February 2026, which are expected to help the Shanghai real estate market stabilize and recover first, leading the repair of first - tier cities [9]. - Prices: In January 2026, China's CPI showed a mild recovery and PPI continued to repair, with clear positive signals in core indicators [11]. - Finance: In January 2026, China's new social financing aggregate had an unexpected good start, with a credit structure characterized by strong consumption and weak mortgages, and an increase in M1 driving the activation of currency liquidity [13]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Monthly Viewpoint and Strategy - Foreign Exchange: The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar reached a new high. The RMB's appreciation was driven by external factors such as the Fed's rate - cut cycle and internal factors like the resilient domestic economy. The central bank adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio from 20% to 0 to balance the foreign exchange market [7]. - Real Estate: Shanghai issued new real estate policies in February 2026, including shortening the social security requirement for non - Shanghai residents to buy houses, increasing the provident fund loan limit, and relaxing the loan - set recognition. The national real estate market is still in an adjustment period, and Shanghai is expected to recover first [9]. - Prices: In January 2026, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, with food prices down 0.7% and non - food prices up 0.4%. PPI decreased by 1.4% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [11]. - Finance: In January 2026, China's new social financing aggregate was 7.22 trillion yuan, with government bonds being the main driving force. Credit data showed a structural differentiation, with strong consumer loans and weak mortgage loans. M1 - M2 scissors - difference narrowed, indicating more active currency liquidity [13]. 3.2 National Economic Accounting - GDP Growth: From 2023 - 2025, the GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rate showed fluctuations. Different industries had different growth rates, with the information transmission, software and information technology services and the leasing and business services industries showing relatively high growth [16]. - Contribution of Three Industries: The contributions of the three industries to the constant - price GDP quarterly year - on - year growth and the GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rate varied over time [17]. 3.3 Industry Data - Industry Growth: The growth rate of the industrial added value of different industries showed differences. For example, the automobile manufacturing, railway, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industries had relatively high growth rates [30][34]. - Industrial Output: The output of major industrial products such as crude oil, coal, and steel also showed certain trends. For instance, the output of crude oil and steel fluctuated over time [36]. - Electricity Consumption: In November 2025, China's total social electricity consumption was 835.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The growth rate of high - energy - consuming industries in the secondary industry slowed down, while high - tech and equipment manufacturing maintained a high growth rate of 6% - 10% [45]. - Industrial Profits: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 7.3982 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Different industries had different profit situations, with the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry having a significant increase in profit [49]. - Industrial Inventory: At the end of 2025, the accounts receivable of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 27.43 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%. The finished - product inventory was 6.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%, and the actual inventory growth rate after excluding price factors was about 5.8% [59]. 3.4 Price Index - CPI: In January 2026, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 0.7%, and non - food prices increased by 0.4%. Different CPI sub - items had different price changes [66]. - PPI: In January 2026, China's PPI decreased by 1.4% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. The prices of production materials and living materials both showed certain changes [74]. 3.5 Real Estate - New Residential Prices: In January 2026, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with Shanghai being an exception with a 4.2% increase. Second - and third - tier cities also saw price declines [85]. - Second - hand Residential Prices: In January 2026, the sales prices of second - hand residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 7.6% year - on - year. Second - and third - tier cities also had price declines [89]. 3.6 Foreign Trade and Investment - Import and Export: In December 2025, China's total import and export value was 601.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.24%. Exports were 357.78 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%, and imports were 243.64 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 5.7% [99]. - Key Commodity Exports and Imports: The export and import amounts of key commodities such as agricultural products, industrial raw materials, and mechanical and electrical products showed different trends over time [106][107]. 3.7 Fixed - Asset Investment - Total Fixed - Asset Investment: In 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 48.5186 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. Different industries had different investment growth rates, with the secondary industry having a 2.5% increase and the third industry having a 7.4% decrease [119]. - Real Estate Investment: In 2025, the national real estate development investment was 8.2788 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The construction area, new construction area, completion area, sales area, and sales amount of real estate all showed declines [127][131][135]. 3.8 Domestic Trade - Retail Sales: The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of service retail sales and social consumer goods retail sales showed certain trends. The retail sales of different industries also had different growth rates [163][170]. 3.9 Transportation - Freight and Passenger Transport: The transportation volumes of different freight and passenger transport modes showed different trends. The traffic flow of subways in nine major cities and the investment in transportation fixed assets also had certain characteristics [173][174][176]. 3.10 Banking and Currency - Social Financing: The new social financing scale and its components showed different trends over time. The stock of social financing scale and its components also had different year - on - year growth rates [184][185]. - Credit: The new RMB loans and their components, including short - term and long - term loans, household loans, and enterprise loans, showed different trends [194]. - Monetary Liquidity: In January, the M1 growth rate declined significantly, and the M2 growth rate increased slightly. The M2 - M1 scissors - difference expanded to 4.7%, indicating a slowdown in capital activation [200]. - Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: The central bank emphasized reasonable interest rate control to promote a stable decline in the financing cost of the real economy. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar and the US dollar index showed certain trends, and the foreign exchange and gold reserves increased [210][221]. 3.11 Fiscal and Employment - Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure: The general public fiscal revenue and expenditure of the central and local governments showed different trends. Different types of fiscal revenues and expenditures also had different changes [236][237]. - Employment: The number of newly - added urban jobs and the urban survey unemployment rate showed certain trends [241]. 3.12 Business Surveys - Global Manufacturing PMI: The global manufacturing PMI showed certain fluctuations from 2025 - 2026. Different countries and regions had different PMI values [246]. - China Manufacturing PMI: In January 2026, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a seasonal decline of 0.8 percentage points. Different sub - indicators such as production, new orders, and prices showed different trends [249]. - China Non - Manufacturing PMI: In January 2026, China's non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points. The construction and service industries both saw a decline in business activity, with different degrees of industry differentiation [257]. 3.13 US Macroeconomy - GDP Growth: The US real GDP环比折年率 showed fluctuations from 2023 - 2025. Different components such as private consumption, investment, and government spending had different contributions to GDP growth [264]. - Employment: The number of newly - added non - farm jobs and the unemployment rate in the US showed certain trends [265]. - Treasury Yields: The yields of US Treasury bonds of different maturities and the yield curve inversion degree showed certain trends [272]. - Retail Sales: The retail and food service sales in the US showed different year - on - year growth rates for different categories [273]. - Federal Reserve: The asset structure of the Federal Reserve and the federal funds rate showed certain trends. The reverse repurchase amount on the liability side of the Federal Reserve decreased significantly this year [274][277].