原油月报：继续关注美伊地缘形势-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, crude oil showed a wide - range volatile upward trend, mainly influenced by the repeated geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. The US crude oil's fundamental situation is generally in an oversupply pattern, but since the beginning of the year, it has been mainly affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. Currently, there has been no substantial progress in the three - round negotiation, and the later progress needs to be continuously monitored. Technically, it shows a strong - side volatile trend [8]. - The strategy is to hold long positions lightly according to the original medium - term long - buying plan and buy and hold put options for protection. In case of a sudden decline due to geopolitical easing, pay attention to timely closing of long positions [8]. 3. Summary According to Each Directory 3.1 Monthly Views and Strategies - Market Review: In January, crude oil showed a wide - range volatile upward trend, mainly affected by the repeated geopolitical situation between the US and Iran [8]. - Supply: In January, OPEC +'s total crude oil production was 42.448 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 439,000 barrels per day. Among them, OPEC's crude oil production was 28.453 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 135,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production was 10.086 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 13,000 barrels per day. The OPEC meeting in March is expected to discuss an increase in production in April. US crude oil production fluctuates slightly at a high level [8]. - Demand: The IEA monthly report lowered the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 850,000 barrels per day and warned of a serious supply surplus in the market, with inventories reaching a new high since the pandemic. The EIA slightly raised the forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2026 and 2027. In 2026, the demand growth rate is 1.21 million barrels per day, a 70,000 - barrel - per - day increase compared to the January 2026 forecast. OPEC basically maintained the forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2026 and 2027. It is expected that the demand growth rate in 2026 will be 1.39 million barrels per day, a 10,000 - barrel - per - day increase compared to the January forecast. US refineries are entering the spring maintenance period, and the operating rate is gradually decreasing. Chinese refineries maintain a high operating rate [8]. - Inventory: In December, the OECD's commercial petroleum inventory increased by 6.5 million barrels month - on - month (with crude oil decreasing by 2.1 million barrels and refined oil increasing by 8.6 million barrels), 89.9 million barrels higher than the same period last year and 44.1 million barrels higher than the average of the past five years. There is an upward inventory - building trend with fluctuations throughout the year. The global in - transit crude oil inventory is at a high level, and the floating storage inventory has risen again. After the refinery operating rate declined, the US crude oil inventory continued to rise, and the refined oil inventory decreased, but the gasoline inventory remained at a high level [8]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - No specific content provided in the report. 3.3 Spot and Futures Markets - In February, international crude oil maintained a volatile trend, and the main contracts were at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Domestic SC crude oil mainly follows the trend of international crude oil. The BRENT - WTI spread widened and was higher year - on - year. The SC - Oman spread weakened and was lower year - on - year [18][23][29]. 3.4 Supply Side - Drilling Quantity: In January, the number of active global oil and gas rigs was 1,821, a month - on - month increase of 39 and a year - on - year decrease of 69. Among them, the number of US rigs was 545, a month - on - month decrease of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 37 [35]. - OPEC and Saudi Crude Oil Production: In January, OPEC +'s total crude oil production was 42.448 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 439,000 barrels per day. Among them, OPEC's crude oil production was 28.453 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 135,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production was 10.086 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 13,000 barrels per day [40]. - US Crude Oil Production: As of the week of February 20, the US crude oil production was 13.702 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 33,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 20 barrels per day. In January, the US shale oil production was 8.93 million barrels per day, accounting for about 65% of the total crude oil production [58]. - Chinese Crude Oil Production and Imports: In 2025, China's cumulative crude oil production was 216 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.54%. In 2025, China's cumulative crude oil imports were 522 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [62]. 3.5 Demand Side - Crude Oil Demand: In January 2026, the global crude oil demand was 105.45 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 2.94%. In 2025, China's apparent crude oil consumption was 791 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.44% [69]. - Refinery Operating Rate: As of the week of February 20, the US refinery operating rate was 88.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.1 percentage points. US refineries are entering the spring maintenance period, and the operating rate is gradually decreasing. The Chinese refinery operating rate was 73.38%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.28 percentage points. Domestic major refineries' operating rate remained flat month - on - month and was at the highest level in the same period in recent years. Independent refineries' operating rate rebounded month - on - month and was higher year - on - year [74][78]. - Refined Oil Production and Exports: In January 2026, China's gasoline production was 13.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.51%, at a low level in the same period in recent years. In 2025, the cumulative gasoline exports were 8.0128 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%. In January 2026, diesel production was 18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.57%. In 2025, the cumulative diesel exports were 6.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.6%. In January 2026, kerosene production was 5.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.87%. In 2025, the cumulative kerosene exports were 21.8231 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.61% [83][88][93]. - Automobile and Truck Production: In January 2026, China's automobile production was 2.45 million vehicles, unchanged year - on - year. Among them, the production of new - energy vehicles was 1.041 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. The new - energy vehicle industry in China has developed rapidly since 2020, having a certain substitution effect on traditional oil product demand [98]. 3.6 Inventory - Petroleum Inventory: In December, the OECD's commercial petroleum inventory increased by 6.5 million barrels month - on - month (with crude oil decreasing by 2.1 million barrels and refined oil increasing by 8.6 million barrels), 89.9 million barrels higher than the same period last year and 44.1 million barrels higher than the average of the past five years. There is an upward inventory - building trend with fluctuations throughout the year. The global in - transit crude oil inventory is at a high level, and the floating storage inventory has risen again [104]. - US Crude Oil Inventory: As of the week of February 20, the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 15.989 million barrels, and the Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 881,000 barrels. After the refinery operating rate decreased, the crude oil inventory accumulated rapidly [106]. - US Refined Oil Inventory: As of the week of February 20, the US EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 1.011 million barrels, and the distillate oil inventory increased by 252,000 barrels. The operating rate of US refineries weakened, gasoline consumption at the terminal accumulated in the off - season, and the demand for distillate oil was good, leading to inventory reduction [111]. - Chinese Crude Oil Inventory: China's crude oil port inventory rebounded slightly and was higher year - on - year. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory continued to decline [116]. 3.7 Macroeconomic Data - GDP and US Dollar: No specific analysis content provided in the report. - Non - farm Payrolls and PMI: No specific analysis content provided in the report.