黄金、白银期货品种周报2026.03.02-03.06-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall trends of both Shanghai gold and silver futures are in an upward channel, but they may be approaching the end of the trend. For gold, short - term market may continue to oscillate in the current range to digest the gains, and in the long - term, the weakening US dollar index and potential geopolitical policy risks provide upward space for gold prices. For silver, in the short - term, it may oscillate strongly in the range of 22,500 - 23,500 yuan/kg, and in the long - term, the price center is expected to rise due to the expanding supply - demand gap and the weakening US dollar [7][33] 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be near the end of the trend. Last week, the gold main contract rose 3.52% driven by the US tariff policy adjustment and the weakening US dollar. Then, it sorted in the range of 1,146 - 1,151 yuan/g. The market volatility narrowed, trading was active, and long - position funds continued to increase positions. In the short - term, the market may continue to oscillate, and in the long - term, the weak US dollar and geopolitical risks provide upward space. It is necessary to pay attention to the US dollar trend, US tariff policy, and main position changes [7] - The mid - line strategy suggestion is to wait and see [8] 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The Shanghai gold contract 2604 was in short - term high - level oscillation, with the upper pressure at 1,200 - 1,220 yuan/g and the lower support at 1,080 - 1,100 yuan/g. It was recommended to buy on dips [10] - This week's strategy suggestion: The Shanghai gold contract 2604 is expected to run strongly at a high level, with the upper pressure at 1,200 - 1,220 yuan/g and the lower support at 1,080 - 1,100 yuan/g. It is recommended to buy on dips [11] 3.1.3 Related Data Situation - Multiple data charts are provided, including the price trends of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][21][23] Silver Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in an upward channel and may be near the end of the trend. Last week, the main contract rose 12.84% driven by the US tariff policy adjustment and the weakening US dollar. Then, it stabilized in the range of 22,600 - 23,000 yuan/kg. The trading volume increased significantly, and the short - side did not dominate. The continuous supply shortage of global silver and the significant reduction of COMEX inventory provide fundamental support. In the short - term, it may oscillate strongly in the range of 22,500 - 23,500 yuan/kg, and in the long - term, the price center is expected to rise. It is necessary to pay attention to the COMEX silver price, inventory changes, and Fed policy signals [33] - The mid - line strategy suggestion is to wait and see [34] 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The silver contract 2604 was in high - level oscillation, with the upper pressure at 21,000 - 23,000 yuan/kg and the lower support at 17,000 - 19,000 yuan/kg. It was recommended to buy on dips [38] - This week's strategy suggestion: The silver contract 2604 is expected to run strongly at a high level, with the upper pressure at 24,000 - 27,000 yuan/kg and the lower support at 18,000 - 21,000 yuan/kg. It is recommended to buy on dips [39] 3.2.3 Related Data Situation - Multiple data charts are provided, including the price trends of Shanghai silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [47][49][51]