格林大华期货早盘提示：棉花-20260302

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - ICE US cotton futures have corrected. In the domestic market, commercial inventories are continuously decreasing, alleviating supply pressure. Xinjiang spot prices have risen significantly, and holders are more reluctant to sell. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work in textile enterprises has led to an increase in the quoted price of pure - cotton yarn. Downstream rigid - demand procurement has started, and expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption peak season are rising. Coupled with the strengthening linkage between the domestic and foreign markets and a favorable macro - environment, active capital entry has pushed up futures prices. The 05 contract should maintain a long - buying strategy below 15,300 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions Review - Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume is 541,187, with an open interest of 1,204,969. The settlement prices are 15,330 for the May contract, 15,380 for the September contract, and 15,690 for the January contract. The settlement prices of ICE March, May, and July contracts are 63.61 (up 25 points), 65.61 (up 25 points), and 67.32 (up 25 points) respectively, with a trading volume of about 43,000 lots [2]. 3.2 Important Information - As of February 19, 2026, the United States has cumulatively signed net export contracts for 2.046 million tons of 2025/26 - year cotton, reaching 78.30% of the annual expected export volume, and has cumulatively shipped 1.036 million tons, with a shipment rate of 50.62%. Among them, upland cotton signing volume is 1.981 million tons, and the shipment volume is 993,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 50.12%. Pima cotton signing volume is 65,000 tons, and the shipment volume is 43,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 66.01%. China has cumulatively signed to import 98,000 tons of US cotton in the 2025/26 year, accounting for 4.81% of the signed US cotton volume; the cumulative shipment volume is 47,000 tons, accounting for 4.51% of the total US cotton shipment volume and 47.43% of China's signed volume [2]. - On the 26th, the listed volume of Indian cotton in the 2025/26 year, converted to lint, is about 19,000 tons, mainly from Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Telangana. On the 25th, CCI conducted a reserve auction of about 102,000 tons, with about 31,000 tons sold. Specifically, the auction reserve price of S - 6 in the 2025/26 year was slightly increased by 100 rupees to 54,500 rupees/candy, equivalent to about 76.45 cents/pound [2]. 3.3 Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures have corrected. In the domestic market, commercial inventories are continuously decreasing, alleviating supply pressure. Xinjiang spot prices have risen significantly, and holders are more reluctant to sell. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work in textile enterprises has led to an increase in the quoted price of pure - cotton yarn. Downstream rigid - demand procurement has started, and expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption peak season are rising. Coupled with the strengthening linkage between the domestic and foreign markets and a favorable macro - environment, active capital entry has pushed up futures prices [2]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - For the 05 contract, maintain a long - buying strategy below 15,300 yuan/ton [2].