宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026年3月2日）-20260302

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of domestic soybean meal futures is stronger than that of the domestic spot market but weaker than the external market, and the medium - term trend is oscillatory. The short - term and medium - term trends of domestic palm oil and soybean oil are oscillatory, and the intraday trends are oscillatory weak [5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Price Trend: Intraday view is oscillatory strong, medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory strong [5]. - Core Logic: The recent trend of domestic soybean meal shows a clear pattern of strong external and weak domestic markets, driven by the dual game of import cost support and loose domestic supply - demand conditions. The strong domestic demand, export expectations of US soybeans, and favorable EPA biofuel policies have led to a rise in prices. The slowest five - year harvest progress in Brazil has further increased import costs. Domestically, the industrial chain is showing signs of weakness. After the Spring Festival, the oil mill operating rate exceeded 36%, soybean arrivals increased, and the oil mill soybean meal inventory was higher than the historical average. The downstream feed enterprises have sufficient physical inventory, and their purchasing mentality is cautious after the festival, leading to a weakening of the spot basis and light trading [5]. - Short - term Outlook: Although the short - term soybean meal futures price follows the US soybean futures price and shows an oscillatory strong trend, the real - world pressure of high domestic inventory and weak demand limits the rebound space, and the trend is weaker than the external market. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade consultations and the downstream replenishment rhythm [7]. Palm Oil (P) - Price Trend: Intraday view is oscillatory weak, medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory weak [8]. - Core Logic: The domestic palm oil market shows a pattern of differentiation from the external market and pressure on the domestic market, and its trend is restricted by both international supply - demand and domestic inventory. The production and demand of Malaysian palm oil are both weak, with the production seasonally declining and the export from February 1 - 25 down 12.1% - 16.1% month - on - month. In March, the domestic import cost is significantly inverted, with the duty - paid cost at 9070 yuan/ton, and the inventory pressure is high, with the coastal main port inventory at 74.4 tons, unchanged from the previous week. On the demand side, the post - festival trading has not fully recovered, and the downstream replenishment is cautious [8]. - Short - term Outlook: The short - term palm oil futures price has the weakest trend, and the rebound space is limited. Attention should be paid to the repair of the soybean - palm oil price difference and the inventory digestion rhythm [8]. Soybean Oil (Y) - Price and Core Logic Summary: The short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory weak. Its influencing factors include US soybean cost support, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].