品种晨会纪要：宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-03-02-20260302

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Report Core View - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term and intraday, with a mid - term view of oscillation. Due to the geopolitical risks, the methanol futures in China are likely to maintain a strong position on Monday [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Time - based Views - Short - term: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward trend [1] - Mid - term: It is expected to oscillate [1][5] - Intraday: It is expected to be strong [1][5] b) Core Logic - Geopolitical risks have led to a rapid increase in the risk in the Middle East. With the US - Israel military attacks on Iran and Iran's announcement to block the Strait of Hormuz, the supply of energy materials like crude oil and methanol is at risk. Iran has a high methanol production capacity of 15 - 16 million tons per year. If the shipping lane is closed or methanol plants are damaged, overseas methanol supply will face shortages. In the short - term, geopolitical factors outweigh the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol, and the positive factors are expected to boost the strong performance of domestic methanol futures on Monday [5]