铜冠金源期货商品日报-20260302

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the US initial jobless claims were lower than expected, the labor market showed "low hiring, low layoffs" characteristics, the Fed's dovish stance on interest rate cuts persisted, the US-Iran nuclear talks made progress, and the US PPI was to be watched. In China, the A-share market was in a weak shock, and the market pricing logic might shift as the Two Sessions approached. Different commodities had different trends based on their respective fundamentals and macro factors [2][3]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - US initial jobless claims were 212,000, lower than expected. The labor market showed "low hiring, low layoffs" characteristics. The Fed's Milan expected 100bp of rate cuts in 2026 and preferred early action. The US-Iran nuclear talks made progress and another meeting was scheduled next week. The US PPI was to be watched tonight. In China, the A-share market was in a weak shock on Thursday, with the turnover rising to 2.56 trillion and more than 2,800 stocks closing down. The market was in a data and policy vacuum, with short - term safety and a possible shift in pricing logic as the Two Sessions approached [2][3]. Precious Metals - International precious metals futures generally pulled back on Thursday. COMEX gold futures fell 0.47% to $5,201.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 3.02% to $88.86 per ounce. The third round of US - Iran nuclear talks ended without intensifying the conflict. Short - term gold faced resistance near the previous high, and silver remained highly volatile [4][5]. Copper - On Thursday, SHFE copper's main contract was in a high - level shock, and LME copper oscillated around $13,200. The spot market trading was light, and downstream restocking willingness was low. The Fed had internal differences on interest rates, and the US - Iran talks had progress but also differences. The Kamoja - Kakula project's copper production in 2025 was 389,000 tons. It was expected that copper prices would remain in a high - level shock in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Thursday, SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 23,845 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. LME aluminum closed at $3,141.5 per ton, down 1.04%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 51,000 tons. There were many macro uncertainties, and the inventory was in a normal seasonal accumulation. Overseas, an Icelandic aluminum plant planned to resume production in April, and a Mozambican plant was about to shut down. It was expected that aluminum prices would continue to oscillate within a range [8][9][10]. Alumina - On Thursday, the main alumina futures contract closed at 2,820 yuan/ton, down 1.27%. After the Spring Festival, the supply side changed little, but high - level inventories suppressed prices. It was expected that alumina would oscillate within a range [11]. Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, the main cast aluminum alloy futures contract closed at 22,710 yuan/ton, up 0.89%. The cost was strongly supported due to tight scrap aluminum supply and high aluminum prices. The supply and demand were both weak after the festival. It was expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [12]. Zinc - On Thursday, SHFE zinc's main contract first declined and then rose, and LME zinc's center of gravity slightly decreased. The 3 - month domestic zinc concentrate processing fee increased slightly. The inventory increase slowed, and the cost was still supported. It was expected that zinc prices would oscillate in the short term [13]. Lead - On Thursday, SHFE lead's main contract oscillated narrowly, and LME lead also had a narrow shock. The primary lead smelters had stable production, while the secondary lead smelters had poor profits and slow resumption. The downstream battery enterprises had limited purchasing power, and the inventory continued to rise. It was expected that lead prices would remain in a low - level shock [14][15]. Tin - On Thursday, SHFE tin's main contract slightly adjusted during the day and its center of gravity slightly moved up at night, and LME tin slightly rose. The tin market showed a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. In the long - term, the supply was restricted, and the demand was boosted. In the short - term, the rise slowed, but the upward trend remained [16]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures oscillated. The total inventory of five major steel products increased by 1.3427 million tons week - on - week. The steel production decreased after the festival, and the apparent demand gradually recovered. It was expected that the inventory inflection point would appear around four weeks after the festival. The steel prices were expected to oscillate and stabilize in the short term [17]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. The fundamentals showed strong supply and weak demand, with overseas shipments increasing and port inventories remaining high. The demand recovery was limited due to steel mill restrictions. It was expected that iron ore prices would mainly oscillate [18][19]. Coking Coal and Coke - On Thursday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated and adjusted. The upstream coal mines gradually resumed production, increasing supply pressure. The downstream steel mills had weak procurement, and the demand was restricted due to steel mill restrictions. It was expected that coking coal and coke prices would oscillate, and the subsequent focus was on steel mill profit repair and policy support from the Two Sessions [20]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the soybean meal 05 contract rose 0.35% to 2,834 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 0.69% to 2,296 yuan/ton. The US soybean export sales slowed, and external institutions lowered Brazil's soybean production forecast. The US bio - fuel policy boosted the market. It was expected that the domestic soybean meal would oscillate strongly in the short term [21][22]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil 05 contract fell 1.51% to 8,714 yuan/ton. The Malaysian palm oil production in February 1 - 25 decreased. The US bio - fuel policy boosted the market. The high - frequency data showed weak supply and demand for Malaysian palm oil in February. It was expected that palm oil would oscillate in the short term [23][24].