格林期货早盘提示：国债-20260302

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Treasury bond futures is "Bullish" [1] Core View of the Report - The short - term financial market's risk - aversion sentiment has risen due to the US - Israel joint air strike on Iran on February 28, and Treasury bond futures may be bullish in the short term. The report suggests that trading - type investors conduct band operations [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened roughly flat and fluctuated narrowly horizontally throughout the day. As of the close, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2606 fell 0.07%, the 10 - year T2606 rose 0.05%, the 5 - year TF2606 rose 0.04%, and the 2 - year TS2606 rose 0.03% [1] Important Information - Open Market Operations: On Friday, the central bank conducted 269 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with no reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a net injection of 269 billion yuan. On February 28, the central bank conducted 116 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with no reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a net injection of 116 billion yuan [1] - Funds Market: On Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market declined slightly compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.35% (1.37% in the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.48% (the same as the previous trading day) [1] - Cash Bond Market: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year Treasury bonds rose 0.49 basis points to 1.37%, the 5 - year rose 1.31 basis points to 1.56%, the 10 - year rose 1.30 basis points to 1.83%, and the 30 - year rose 4.01 basis points to 2.30% [1] - Bond Issuance: As of February 25, the issuance scale of local government bonds nationwide has exceeded 2 trillion yuan. The issuance scale of local government bonds in the first two months of this year (about 2.28 trillion yuan) is expected to increase by about 22% compared to the same period last year. As of February 26, the total issuance scale of Treasury bonds in 2026 reached 2.239 trillion yuan, a 12% increase compared to 1.99606 trillion yuan in the same period in 2025. The newly - issued local government special bonds in 2026 as of February 26 were 807.686 billion yuan, a 60% increase compared to 504.075 billion yuan in the same period in 2025. March may be the peak supply period for Treasury bonds and local bonds in the first quarter [1] - Policy: On February 27, the central bank decided to lower the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales business from 20% to 0 starting from March 2, 2026, which is the first adjustment since September 2022. This will reduce the cost of forward foreign exchange sales business for banks and lower the cost of forward foreign exchange purchases for enterprises, releasing a policy signal to prevent the rapid appreciation of the RMB and helping to stabilize market expectations [1][2] - Political Meeting: On February 27, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to discuss the draft outline of the 15th Five - Year Plan and the government work report. It emphasized continuing to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthening the synergy between reform measures and macro - policies, and promoting the high - quality development of the economy [2] - International Incident: On February 28, the US and Israel jointly carried out an air strike on Iran, and Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was attacked and killed, casting a shadow of war over the Middle East again [2] Market Logic - In January, China's social financing scale increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, exceeding the market expectation of 6.51 trillion yuan and an increase of 165.4 billion yuan compared to the same period last year. The net financing of government bonds in January increased by 976.4 billion yuan, an increase of 283.1 billion yuan year - on - year. The RMB loans in the credit caliber increased by 4.71 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the market expectation of 4.5 trillion yuan and a decrease of 420 billion yuan year - on - year. In January, the sales price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous month. China's overall inflation level rebounded moderately in January, with the core CPI rising 0.3% month - on - month and the PPI rising 0.4% month - on - month. The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, and the service industry business activity index was 49.5%, both below the boom - bust line, indicating a moderately growing economy in January. The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will remain at a necessary level. The central bank said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to keep the comprehensive social financing cost at a low level and maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system. On Friday, the Wind All - A Index opened lower, quickly recovered in the morning session, and then moved sideways, with a small rally in the afternoon, closing up 0.41% for the day with a trading volume of 2.51 trillion yuan, showing little change compared to the previous trading day's 2.56 trillion yuan [2] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]