宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026年3月2日）-20260302

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The iron ore 2605 is expected to be volatile in the short - term and medium - term, and slightly weak in the intraday. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line. The current situation is weak, and the ore price will continue to fluctuate. The ore price is likely to continue to oscillate at a low level due to the博弈 between the positive policy expectations and the poor fundamentals of iron ore [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday view is "slightly weak". The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, and the core logic is that the current situation is weak and the ore price will continue to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. Steel mills' production is stable, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to rise. However, steel mills' profitability is poor, the contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and the room for demand growth is limited, so the boosting effect is not strong. The arrival of goods at domestic ports continues to decline, but the shipments of miners have increased significantly. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival of goods will increase significantly, and domestic ore production will resume, so the ore supply will increase. In conclusion, although the iron ore demand has improved, the room for growth is uncertain, while the supply has returned to a high level, and the fundamentals of the ore have not improved, so the ore price is likely to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the strong policy expectations. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production of steel mills [3].