钢材,铁矿石：黑色建材日报2026-03-02-20260302

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive last week, with the prices of finished steel products rebounding slightly. However, the fundamentals of the black series are significantly weaker than pre - holiday expectations, and the prices are likely to continue the range - bound and weak pattern in the short term. The core contradictions are inventory digestion and demand verification. [3] - For iron ore, after the end of the weather impact, overseas supply has recovered, and high inventory suppresses the price increase. Although the demand for molten iron has recovered well, the price is expected to be range - bound and weak. [6] - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, in the medium - to - long - term, the bullish trend of commodities is expected to continue, but the short - term market may continue the shock and volatility - reduction cycle. The black sector is still in a weak state and is likely to be short - sold. [11] - For coking coal and coke, in the medium - to - long - term, the bullish trend of commodities is expected to continue, but the short - term market may be in a shock and volatility - reduction cycle. The black sector is weak, and there is a risk of short - term callback for coking coal. It may have a relatively smooth upward trend from June to October. [17] - For industrial silicon, it is expected to show a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with prices moving in a range. For polysilicon, the futures price is expected to be under pressure, and it is advisable to wait and see. [20][23] - For glass, the market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. For soda ash, the market is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock and consolidation pattern. [26][28] Summary by Categories Steel - Market Quotes: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3067 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.130%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 9328 tons, a decrease of 10269 tons from the previous day. The main contract position was 1.9482 million lots, a decrease of 4226 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3215 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.09%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 352247 tons, an increase of 1477 tons. The main contract position was 1.492 million lots, a decrease of 791 lots. [2] - Strategy Viewpoints: The output of hot - rolled coils is basically the same as before the holiday, and the apparent demand has recovered quickly after the holiday, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level in the past five years. Rebar shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with the production and sales recovery rhythm not fully restored and the inventory accumulation speed relatively fast, but still within a controllable range. Before the real demand in the peak season is confirmed, the price is difficult to reverse the trend and is likely to continue the range - bound and weak pattern. [3] Iron Ore - Market Quotes: The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 750.50 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of + 0.27% (+ 2.00), and the position increased by 6109 lots to 546700 lots. The weighted position was 946200 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 752 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.39 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.94%. [5] - Strategy Viewpoints: In terms of supply, the overseas ore shipments have returned to the same - period high after the elimination of weather disturbances during the Spring Festival. In terms of demand, the daily average molten iron output has increased to 2332800 tons. The molten iron production is expected to be affected briefly during the important meeting. The port inventory has started to accumulate again, and the steel mill inventory has dropped to a low level. The price is expected to be range - bound and weak. [6] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Quotes: On February 27, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) rose 1.82% to close at 6026 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a discount of 86 yuan/ton to the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) rose 3.39% to close at 5726 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a premium of 124 yuan/ton to the futures price. [9] - Strategy Viewpoints: The rise of ferrosilicon last week was mainly affected by rumors of rising power costs in South Africa and the imposition of ecological export tariffs on manganese ore. In the medium - to - long - term, the bullish trend of commodities is expected to continue, but the short - term market may be in a shock and volatility - reduction cycle. The black sector is weak. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - push and supply - contraction factors. [11][12] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Quotes: On February 27, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) rebounded after hitting the bottom, rising 0.32% to close at 1093.5 yuan/ton. The main contract of coke (J2605) fell 0.52% to close at 1635.5 yuan/ton. [14] - Strategy Viewpoints: Last week, the prices of coking coal and coke were range - bound and weak. After the end of pre - holiday replenishment by downstream steel mills and coking plants, the downstream will enter the active de - stocking stage until mid - April, which restricts consumption. At the same time, coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the coal output is increasing. In the medium - to - long - term, the bullish trend of commodities is expected to continue, but there is a risk of short - term callback for coking coal, and it may have a relatively smooth upward trend from June to October. [16][17] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Quotes: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) on Friday was 8395 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.72% (+ 60). The weighted contract position increased by 3519 lots to 445190 lots. The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) on Friday was 46495 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.39% (+ 180). The weighted contract position remained unchanged at 65703 lots. [19][21] - Strategy Viewpoints: For industrial silicon, it is expected to show a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with prices moving in a range. For polysilicon, the futures price is expected to be under pressure, and it is advisable to wait and see. [20][23] Glass and Soda Ash - Market Quotes: The main contract of glass closed at 1058 yuan/ton on Friday, down 0.56% (- 6). The main contract of soda ash closed at 1191 yuan/ton on Friday, with no change. [25][27] - Strategy Viewpoints: For glass, the supply is stable, the demand is weak, the inventory is high, and the price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. For soda ash, the market sentiment is still wait - and - see, the demand is slowly released, the supply is relatively stable, and the market is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock and consolidation pattern. [26][28]