工业硅、多晶硅月报：双硅盘面震荡弱势-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial Silicon: In February 2026, the industrial silicon market experienced a double - reduction in supply and demand. The price was still bottoming out in the range, and there was no sign of a turnaround in the short term. If there was large - scale resumption of production after the holiday, the market would decline further. The report suggested considering short - selling opportunities for si2605, buying put options, or conducting an arbitrage between shorting industrial silicon and longing polysilicon [11]. - Polysilicon: The short - term polysilicon market was mainly characterized by observing inventory reduction and weak price operation. The output in March was expected to increase. The market might move towards a weak balance if the downstream demand recovered, and the price could stabilize; otherwise, the price decline would continue. The report recommended considering short - selling opportunities for PS2605, buying put options, or conducting an arbitrage between shorting industrial silicon and longing polysilicon [14]. 3. Summary by Chapter 3.1 Monthly Views and Hot News - Hot News: Some polysilicon leading enterprises held meetings to discuss market issues, and some silicon material factories started to increase or maintain prices. The highest enterprise quotation returned to 63 yuan/kg. From April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products would be cancelled, and the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products would be adjusted. The market supervision department had regulatory actions on the photovoltaic industry, and the polysilicon futures limit - down might be affected by the regulatory information. New polysilicon futures delivery warehouses were added [8]. - Industrial Silicon Monthly View: The spot price of industrial silicon decreased by 3.25% from February 1 to 28, 2026. The futures price of the main contract decreased by 5.14%. The overall furnace - opening rate of the industry declined, and the output decreased year - on - year. Downstream demand shrank, and the profit decreased. The inventory was still at a high level. The price was expected to remain weak, and relevant short - selling strategies were proposed [11]. - Polysilicon Monthly View: The spot price of polysilicon decreased by 2.94% from February 1 to 28, 2026. The futures price of the main contract decreased by 1.37%. Although the supply was reduced, the new production capacity was still being released, and the demand was weak. The inventory was high, and the price was expected to be weak. Relevant short - selling strategies were also proposed [14]. - Price Influence Factor Prediction: For industrial silicon, factors such as reduced supply were positive, while reduced demand and high inventory were negative, and the overall price was expected to decline. For polysilicon, the price was expected to fluctuate [15][16]. 3.2 Industry Pattern - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industry Chain: Industrial silicon was produced from raw materials such as petroleum coke, charcoal, etc., and was used in the production of organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloys. These products were further used in various industries such as electronics, construction, and photovoltaics [20]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Markets - Basis and Spread: There were relevant charts showing the basis of industrial silicon and the spread of polysilicon [23]. - Spot Price: There were charts showing the spot prices of industrial silicon 553 and 421 at different ports and regions, as well as the prices of industrial silicon contracts [28][37][45]. 3.4 Inventory - There were charts showing the industry inventory, factory inventory, market inventory, and futures inventory of industrial silicon [56][60]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - Profit and Cost: There were charts showing the comprehensive profit and cost of industrial silicon, as well as the electricity prices in main production areas, the prices of silicon stone, petroleum coke, electrodes, and silicon coal [68][74][83][90]. 3.6 Supply - Production and Capacity: There were charts showing the weekly and monthly production of industrial silicon, the opening rate, and the monthly production capacity. There was also a list of new production capacity projects in different regions [99][104][107]. 3.7 Demand - Consumption Overview: There were charts showing the consumption breakdown and structure of industrial silicon. The consumption data of organic silicon, aluminum alloys, and polysilicon from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10 were also provided. There were also charts related to the production, price, inventory, and cost of polysilicon, as well as the price, production, and cost of organic silicon, and the production, price, and inventory of aluminum rods and aluminum alloys [110][113][116][122][126][132][137][142]. 3.8 Import and Export - There were charts showing the import and export of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and photovoltaic products [176][180][183].