塑料 L 及 PP：PP 港口库存累库

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market conditions of L plastic and PP polypropylene fluctuate daily, affected by factors such as geopolitical events, inventory levels, and检修情况. Different indicators like M1 - M2 scissors - difference, ZEW global auto industry index, and import - export data of raw salt have impacts on the market, leading to different trading strategies for L and PP contracts [1][2][5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - L Plastic: - On 26 - 03 - 02, the L main 2605 contract closed at 6633 points, up 36 points or +0.55%. LLDPE market prices fluctuated, with a change range of 20 - 80 yuan/ton. Some traders actively sold goods, while some held back due to the Middle - East situation. Downstream factories made rigid purchases [1] - On 26 - 02 - 27, the L main 2605 contract closed at 6604 points, down 64 points or - 0.96%. LLDPE market prices slightly declined, with price drops in different regions [5] - On 26 - 02 - 26, the L main 2605 contract closed at 6758 points, down 19 points or - 0.28%. LLDPE market prices partially rose, but trading was light [9] - On 26 - 02 - 25, the L main 2605 contract closed at 6826 points, up 6 points or +0.09%. LLDPE market prices partially rose, and some downstream buyers made purchases [13] - On 26 - 02 - 24, the L main 2605 contract closed at 6644 points, down 90 points or - 1.34%. LLDPE market prices were stable, and there was little trading [16] - PP Polypropylene: - On 26 - 03 - 02, the PP main 2605 contract closed at 6641 points, up 30 points or +0.45%. The domestic PP market price center had a narrow adjustment, and afternoon trading was limited due to geopolitical factors [1] - On 26 - 02 - 27, the PP main 2605 contract closed at 6605 points, down 70 points or - 1.05%. The domestic PP market was partially weak, and downstream demand was limited [5] - On 26 - 02 - 26, the PP main 2605 contract closed at 6734 points, up 14 points or +0.21%. The domestic PP market still had some price increases, but downstream inquiries were weak [9] - On 26 - 02 - 25, the PP main 2605 contract closed at 6747 points, up 1 point or +0.01%. The spot market was boosted by the rise in crude oil prices, and downstream factories made some purchases [13] - On 26 - 02 - 24, the PP main 2605 contract closed at 6568 points, down 80 points or - 1.20%. The domestic PP market price changed little during the holiday, and trading was scarce [16] Important Information - On 26 - 03 - 02, the US and Israel launched a "pre - emptive" military strike against Iran on February 28, and Iran retaliated. Missile debris hit Dubai and Abu Dhabi, causing at least one death [1] - On 26 - 02 - 27, global refined oil demand will enter the end of growth in the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. China's refining and refined oil industry will enter the "transformation acceleration period" [5] - On 26 - 02 - 26, the 1000 - million - ton/year refining and chemical integration transformation and upgrading project of Yanchang Petroleum in Yan'an, with a total investment of 80.29 billion yuan, has completed pre - preparations and been submitted to the State Council for approval [9] - On 26 - 02 - 25, in 2025, the petrochemical industry achieved stable progress. Crude oil production increased for seven consecutive years, and natural gas production increased for nine consecutive years. However, industry investment and import - export trade volume decreased [13] - On 26 - 02 - 24, the EU's Waste Technical Adaptation Committee for the Single - Use Plastics Directive approved a draft implementation act regarding the accounting rules for recycled PET in plastic beverage bottles [16] Logical Analysis - In January, the domestic M1 - M2 scissors - difference was - 4.1%, slightly positive for commodities. As of last Friday, the registered warehouse receipts of the DCE L contract increased by 74.1% year - on - year, and those of the PP contract increased by 138.0% year - on - year. From February, PP port inventory has increased for three consecutive months [2] - In February, the ZEW global auto industry index dropped to - 7.2 points, slightly negative for commodities. In December 2025, the domestic raw salt import - export volume decreased by 46.0% year - on - year, negative for the chemical industry. The weekly maintenance loss of domestic LLDPE and PP increased, but the growth rate narrowed [6][10] - In December 2025, US auto and parts new orders increased by 11.4% year - on - year, positive for commodities. In January, the VXD index rose by 2.8% year - on - year, positive for the chemical industry. The monthly maintenance loss of LLDPE and PP increased, and the ratio of the two indicated that L was relatively strong [14] - As of the holiday, the registered warehouse receipts of the DCE L contract increased by 43.2% year - on - year, and those of the PP contract increased by 94.2% year - on - year. In January, the monthly maintenance loss of LLDPE increased by 37.1% year - on - year, positive for L [17] Trading Strategies - 26 - 03 - 02: For the L main 2605 contract, try to go long at an appropriate time and set a stop - loss at 6550 points. For the PP main 2605 contract, stay on the sidelines [2] - 26 - 02 - 27: For the L main 2605 contract, stay on the sidelines. For the PP main 2605 contract, hold short positions and set a stop - loss at 6700 points [6] - 26 - 02 - 26: For the L main 2605 contract, stay on the sidelines. For the PP main 2605 contract, hold short positions and set a stop - loss at 6700 points [10] - 26 - 02 - 25: For the L main 2605 contract, try to go long at an appropriate time and set a stop - loss at 6700 points. For the PP main 2605 contract, stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the pressure at 6770 points [14] - 26 - 02 - 24: For the L main 2605 contract, stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the support at 6600 points. For the PP main 2605 contract, try shorting a small amount and set a stop - loss at 6620 points [17]