“HALO交易”与“抱团”新战场

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the current market, the clear - direction and easy - choice stage may have passed. For the US stock market, although the technology sector has good performance and continuous capital investment, its valuation is high, and there are uncertainties such as the sustainability of capital expenditure and the impact of AI on software/light - asset industries. Thus, the market has turned to HALO trading (heavy - asset and low - obsolescence) as a substitute and hedge for technology holdings [3]. - In the A - share market, HALO assets (cyclical/stable/heavy - asset manufacturing) also have high long - term investment value when their valuation is cost - effective, and are important alternative choices for investors who do not want to fully chase the technology sector. From the perspective of fund clustering, there are two strategies: offensive and defensive [4]. - The configuration directions include offensive HALO (such as industries related to price increase and overseas expansion) and defensive HALO (such as low - holding industries and TMT - low - related industries). There are also some technology trading directions with more catalysts and difficult - to - falsify features [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 HALO Trading - Concept and Background - HALO trading in the US stock market has emerged in recent months, mainly involving cyclical/utility - stable/heavy - asset manufacturing sectors. These sectors have high asset thresholds and low probability of being eliminated in the AI era. Since November 2025, HALO assets in the US stock market have performed well, while software - related sectors have been under pressure. In the A - share market, the corresponding HALO sectors also have an advantage [10]. - The US technology market is difficult to prove or disprove, and although the market cannot be said to have ended, there may be inflection points in the medium - to - long - term. The relative valuation of US technology is at a high level, and the relative valuation of HALO assets is at a low level, showing high long - term cost - effectiveness [13][15]. - Catalysts - Recently, commodities such as industrial metals and oil prices have risen rapidly, which will promote the upward movement of HALO sectors such as cyclicals. There is also a risk of re - inflation in the medium - to - long - term, and HALO assets may directly benefit from price increases (cyclicals) or be relatively immune to price increases (utilities) [18]. - A - share HALO Experience - When the relative valuation of A - share cyclical and stable sectors is at a low level, they can outperform TMT/All A in the 1 - 2 - year long - term investment perspective. Currently, the relative valuation of cyclical and stable sectors to TMT is at a low level, and it can be used as an alternative choice in the later stage of the technology market [21]. - At the primary industry level, cyclical and stable sectors such as steel, coal, chemical, and building materials have medium - to - low relative valuations, high cash - flow - to - market - value ratios, and recent performance has also improved. Stable sectors such as electricity and transportation have clear long - term barriers and high cash - flow - to - market - value ratios, and have reached the cost - effective range [24]. - At the tertiary industry level, HALO assets are screened according to criteria such as [fixed assets + construction in progress]/total assets > 50% quantile of the whole industry, etc. [27] 3.2 Fund Clustering - Current Situation - The TMT position of active funds in this round of the technology wave has reached 40%, exceeding the historical critical point of about 30%. After the collapse of previous rounds of clustering, the position ratio generally declined to below 20% [29]. - Historical Experience - In the last year of the four historical rounds of clustering, there were about two quarters with significant win - rate and odds. The win - rate and odds in the middle two quarters were mediocre [31]. - Alternative Strategies - Low - holding/low - correlation reverse layout: Whether from the "low - holding" or "low - correlation" perspective, the reverse layout strategy at the peak of clustering is effective. The average excess returns of the 12 industry samples in the four rounds of clustering are +20 and +18 pct respectively, with win - rates of 83% and 75% respectively. Currently, "low - holding" industries include textile and clothing, retail, real estate, coal, and construction; industries with "low - correlation" with TMT include banks, coal, petrochemicals, and food and beverage [35][37]. - New battlefields with industrial catalysts: The perspective of finding new battlefields in clustering has certain odds. The average excess return of 17 industry samples in the one - year period after the peak of clustering is +8 pct, but the win - rate is average and needs to be combined with industrial trends. Currently, four clues are attracting attention: varieties benefiting from the large - cycle price - spread repair, some upstream equipment radiated by the AI boom, securities companies benefiting from the warming of the capital market, and the infrastructure and real - estate chain [40][41]. 3.3 Overseas Expansion - Fund Allocation - In the fourth quarter of 2025, active funds generally increased their positions in overseas - expansion directions, including industries such as communications, non - ferrous metals, and basic chemicals. Most of these industries' position quantiles are still relatively low and have large room for improvement [42]. - Export Situation - In December 2025, the year - on - year export increased to +6.6%, and the CAGR marginal growth rate since 2019 has increased. Non - US regions and products such as automobiles, rare earths, integrated circuits, and ships have strong resilience [45]. 3.4 Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts - Historical experience shows that in the short - term impact of geopolitical conflicts, gold and crude oil rise due to risk - aversion, while the risk appetite of A - shares and US stocks is under pressure. The current new round of the Iran - Israel conflict is a type of Middle - East regional conflict, which may mainly affect oil prices and precious - metal prices, with limited impact on the equity side [48]. 3.5 Market Review in February - Market Trends - The spring market started steadily, and the cyclical style performed prominently. The cyclical sectors such as steel, building materials, and machinery had relatively high monthly returns, while sectors such as real estate, agriculture, and medicine had negative returns [53][55]. - Policy - In February, real - estate policy measures were introduced, such as Shanghai relaxing housing - purchase regulations. There were also policies in other fields, including the release of the "Low - Altitude Economy Standard System Construction Guide (2025 Edition)" and the "Implementation Plan for the High - Quality Development of the Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry (2026 - 2030)" [58][59]. 3.6 Macroeconomic Situation - Overseas - US Treasury bonds continued to decline, global funds turned from flowing out of the stock market to flowing in, the US PMI rebounded significantly, and the European OECD leading index continued its upward trend [63][66]. - China - In February, the long - and short - term Chinese Treasury bonds showed differentiation, the RMB continued to appreciate, the corporate financing demand rebounded from a low level, the growth rates of M2 and M1 both increased, and the BCI in February increased, with high - frequency data stronger than that of the same period last year [69][71][76]. 3.7 Corporate Profit and Index Valuation - Corporate Profit - In January, corporate profits rebounded, with high profit growth in industries such as ferrous metal smelting, non - ferrous metal mining and dressing, and transportation equipment [82]. - Index Valuation - There is still room for the stock - bond yield spread, international comparison, and monetary effect. From different perspectives such as the implied ERP, stock - bond yield spread, global valuation comparison, and stock - market - value - to - bond/monetary/GDP ratio, there is potential for the index to rise [87]. 3.8 Transaction Characteristics and Market Trends - Transaction Characteristics - The index volatility increased, and the industry rotation speed continued to decline. The margin trading balance as a proportion of the A - share floating market value decreased, and the turnover rate and single - month trading volume both decreased significantly [95][96]. - Market Trends - Passive funds flowed into the large - financial sector, and leveraged funds tended to flow out. Southbound funds flowed into the media and banking sectors in February, and the private - equity fund positions continued to rise [98][100]. 3.9 Mid - level Industry Prosperity - Upstream and Mid - stream - The prosperity of upstream rare earths, tungsten - molybdenum and other small metals, and mid - stream TMT & new energy sectors increased marginally [103]. - Downstream - The prosperity of household appliances and traditional Chinese medicine rebounded, and the prosperity of oil transportation reached a high level and further increased [105]. 3.10 Market Style - Prosperity Style - When the prosperity is rising, focus on high ROE and high G; when the prosperity is falling, focus on high DP. In the medium - term, it may gradually shift to high ROE and high expected performance [108]. - Market - Capitalization Style - In the short - term, with internal monetary easing and external tightening, small - cap stocks are expected to take the lead. The follow - up needs to pay attention to the central bank's actions [111]. - Dumbbell Portfolio - The over - crowdedness of the TMT sector has declined, and its relative performance has recovered. The over - crowdedness of the dividend sector has also fallen to a low level [114].