国新国证期货早报-20260302

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A - share market on February 27, 2026 showed mixed performance among the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising, the Shenzhen Component Index slightly falling, and the ChiNext Index dropping significantly. Trading volume decreased slightly compared to the previous day [1]. - Various futures products have different market trends and influencing factors. For example, the prices of coke and coking coal futures are affected by factors such as enterprise profitability, production capacity, and downstream demand; the price of Zhengzhou sugar is affected by supply - demand relationships; the price of rubber is affected by technical factors; the price of soybean meal is affected by international and domestic supply - demand and weather conditions; the price of live pigs is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand; the price of copper shows a volatile and strong pattern; the price of iron ore is in a volatile state; the price of asphalt is in a volatile operation; the price of logs is waiting for market verification after full resumption of work; the price of cotton is gradually recovering; the price of steel is in a volatile state due to weak supply - demand; the price of alumina is in a weak and volatile state; the price of aluminum is in an interval - oscillating state [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Product Categories Stock Index Futures - On February 27, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.39% to 4162.88 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.06% to 14495.09 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.04% to 3310.30 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.51 trillion yuan, a decrease of 504 million yuan compared to the previous day. The CSI 300 index oscillated and sorted, closing at 4710.65, a decrease of 16.23 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On February 27, the coke weighted index was still weak, closing at 1643.8, a decrease of 16.2; the coking coal weighted index oscillated weakly, closing at 1110.9 yuan, a decrease of 4.8. The coke enterprises' profitability is average, and the operating rate has declined slightly. There is still an expectation of price reduction. The downstream steel mills' profits have recovered, but the rebound of molten iron production is limited. Steel mills mainly consume their own inventories and have average restocking enthusiasm, maintaining a demand - based procurement rhythm. In 2025, China's total coke exports were 794.11 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.53%. In December, coke exports were 100.45 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39.95% and a year - on - year increase of 80.18%. After the Spring Festival, coal mines resumed production quickly. The import of coking coal from Mongolia has recovered to a high level, but the port inventory pressure is still large. In 2025, China's total import of coking coal was 118 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.66%. In December, the total import of coking coal was 13.7698 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year increase of 28.57% [2][3][4][5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the prospect of supply surplus, the US sugar oscillated and closed slightly lower on February 27. Due to long - position liquidation, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated downward at night. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) expects the global sugar surplus in 2025/26 to be 1.22 million tons, a slight decrease from the previous forecast of 1.63 million tons. The production in India and Thailand is lower than expected. Speculators reduced their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 9,251 lots to 245,863 lots as of the week ending February 24 [5][6]. Rubber - Due to large short - term gains and technical factors, the Shanghai rubber continued to oscillate and adjust at night on February 27. As of February 27, the inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 124,980 tons, a month - on - month increase of 400 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 114,470 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,900 tons. The inventory of No. 20 rubber was 52,416 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 202 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 50,601 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 202 tons [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on February 27, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1170 cents per bushel, a 0.6% increase. The US biofuel policy is beneficial to the demand for soybean oil, supporting the price of US soybeans. The soybean export sales meet market expectations. In South America, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil is slower than in previous years, dragging down export expectations, while Argentina has received rainfall, improving crop growth conditions. Domestically, on February 27, the soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 2833 yuan per ton, a 0.04% decrease. After the Spring Festival, the oil mills' operation gradually recovers, and the supply of soybean meal will increase. The port soybean inventory is abundant, and the overall supply is loose. The soybean meal futures market's buying sentiment has recovered, but the weak fundamentals of soybean meal suppress the upward space of the futures price [6]. Live Pigs - On February 27, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 11,485 yuan per ton, a 0.79% increase. On the supply side, after the Spring Festival, the large - scale pig enterprises accelerated the rhythm of weight - reducing slaughter, and the previously accumulated pig sources were gradually released, resulting in a loose market supply and a significant increase in slaughter pressure. As of the end of January 2026, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.58 million, a slight month - on - month decrease but still at a high level year - on - year. The breeding efficiency continues to improve, further increasing the effective supply. On the demand side, after the Spring Festival, the pork consumption enters the off - season, the downstream white - strip pork sales are not smooth, the slaughter enterprises' operating rate is low, and the demand side's ability to undertake is weak, providing insufficient support for the pig price [6]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main 2604 contract closed at 103,920 yuan per ton, with the highest price of 104,170 yuan per ton and the lowest price of 101,780 yuan per ton during the day. The trading volume was 157,500 lots, and the open interest was 203,800 lots. It opened low and closed high, showing a volatile and strong pattern. The spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was 101,980 yuan per ton, a discount of 1,940 yuan per ton compared to the main futures contract. The cable operating rate this week was 27.72% (a month - on - month increase of 12.52 percentage points), and SMM expects it to rise to 58.36% next week. The spot trading is light due to the slow resumption of work [6]. Iron Ore - On February 27, the iron ore 2605 main contract oscillated and closed up, with a 0.27% increase, closing at 750.5 yuan. Recently, the iron ore shipment has significantly increased, the arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory is at a historical high. Some steel enterprises in the north have received notices of phased emission reduction and control during the Two Sessions, and the downstream demand for steel has not recovered. Steel mills are still cautious in purchasing raw materials, and the short - term iron ore price is in an oscillating state [8]. Asphalt - On February 27, the asphalt 2604 main contract oscillated and closed down, with a 0.03% decrease, closing at 3346 yuan. Recently, some refineries in the region plan to resume production, the supply is expected to increase, the inventory pressure has increased, the downstream rigid demand is weak, the market trading atmosphere is average, and the short - term asphalt price shows an oscillating operation [8]. Logs - The log 2605 main contract opened at 795 on February 27, with the lowest price of 790.5, the highest price of 799, and closed at 798.5, with an increase of 307 lots in open interest. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. Although the overseas market raised prices before the Spring Festival, the domestic spot market is stable, waiting for verification after full resumption of work [8][9]. Cotton - On the night of February 27, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15,295 yuan per ton. The cotton inventory increased by 35 lots compared to the previous trading day. As of February 26, the domestic cotton market has not fully recovered, and the business of import and export ports, the hanging orders of cotton trading enterprises, and the inquiry/purchase of textile mills have gradually started. The sales of Brazilian cotton, Australian cotton, American cotton, and Kazakh cotton are continuously picking up [9]. Steel - The supply and demand of rebar have changed. The production of construction steel mills has weakened, the output has shrunk again and is at a relatively low level, but the inventory level is high, and the positive effect on the supply side is not strong. The demand for rebar is weak. Although the weekly apparent demand has increased month - on - month, it is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream industries have not resumed work, so the demand recovery has a time lag. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weakly stable, the inventory continues to increase, the steel price is under pressure, but the policy expectation is increasing. The operation logic of the steel market switches between reality and expectation, and the trend maintains an oscillating state [9]. Alumina - After the Spring Festival, the alumina futures have been running weakly, and the spot market traders' quotes have a slight premium, mainly supported by the expectation of post - festival restocking and the short - term contraction of the supply side. Fundamentally, as the Lantern Festival approaches, the previously overhauled and shut - down enterprises will gradually resume production, and the industry operating rate is expected to rise steadily, and the overall supply remains rigid. In general, the expectation of long - term supply contraction cannot shake the current high - inventory reality, and the alumina price lacks the driving force for a trend - upward rise, maintaining a weak and oscillating state [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - Macroscopically, the macro - drive has cooled down before and after the Spring Festival, and the over - heated precious metals, copper, and market sentiment have become mild, weakening the drive for aluminum. The impact of overseas tariff adjustments during the Spring Festival is also relatively mild, and the domestic market is in a policy window period, and the performance of metals after the Spring Festival is a mild transition. Fundamentally, the supply - side pressure has increased, the aluminum plants are operating smoothly, the ratio of molten aluminum to ingots has dropped to the lowest level of the year before and after the Spring Festival, the supply of aluminum ingots has increased, while the downstream demand has reduced inventory due to the high - price pressure of aluminum, and the social inventory has accumulated a lot, reaching the highest level in the past five years year - on - year. The downstream resumption of work is relatively slow, generally after the tenth or fifteenth day of the first lunar month, and the current support is insufficient. In some fields such as the automobile, power, and photovoltaic industries, the performance is stable, and the resumption of work and production is earlier than in other industries. In general, after the Spring Festival, the macro - sentiment is mild, and the fundamental drive is limited, and the aluminum price is in an interval - oscillating state [10].