大越期货纯碱早报-20260302

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak. With the start - up load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II increasing and the overall supply expected to be abundant, while the daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: The start - up load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II has increased, the production of soda ash plants is at a high level, and the overall supply is expected to be abundant. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level; bearish [3]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,150 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,194 yuan/ton, the basis is - 44 yuan, and the futures are at a premium to the spot; bearish [3]. - Inventory: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8944 million tons, an increase of 19.29% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; bearish [3]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [3]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing; bearish [3]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 2. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: There are few cold repairs of downstream float glass, and the production remains stable [4]. - Negative factors: The start - up load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II production line has increased, and there is no expectation of new maintenance, so the production is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [6]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous value | 1,191 | 1,150 | - 41 | | Current value | 1,194 | 1,150 | - 44 | | Change rate | 0.25% | 0.00% | 7.32% | [7] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of the heavy soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [13]. 5. Soda Ash Production - Production profit: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 162.25 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production method is - 69.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [16]. - Start - up rate and production capacity: The weekly start - up rate of the soda ash industry is 85.04%. The weekly production of soda ash is 790,900 tons, including 423,000 tons of heavy soda ash, with the production at a historical high [19][21]. - Production capacity changes: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; the planned new production capacity in 2025 was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [22]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Sales ratio: The weekly sales ratio of soda ash is 61.12% [25]. - Downstream demand: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 148,600 tons, and the start - up rate is 70.61% [28]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8944 million tons, an increase of 19.29% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 8. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Production Capacity (10,000 tons) | Output (10,000 tons) | Start - up Rate | Import (10,000 tons) | Export (10,000 tons) | Net Import (10,000 tons) | apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Production Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3087 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [35]