基本面边际改善，旺季钢价或企稳：2026年3月钢材月报-20260302

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, steel prices fluctuated weakly due to the accumulation of industrial contradictions in the steel market during the holiday and the return of the trading logic to the industrial end [4][11][126] - Steel inventories continued to accumulate, with significant increases in all varieties but varying growth rates. Construction steel inventories had the most obvious increase, while plate inventories were also at the highest level in the same lunar period in recent years [4][24][28] - During the Spring Festival, the production of long - and short - process steel mills differed. Short - process steel mills' shutdown led to a decline in construction steel production, while long - process steel mills maintained stable production, and plate supply increased steadily. After the festival, short - process steel mills will resume production, but the probability of a significant increase in production is not high [4][49][57] - Steel demand continued to weaken, with all varieties experiencing a decline in demand but varying amplitudes. After the festival, steel demand will improve marginally, and there will be differences in performance between varieties. Infrastructure investment is expected to be optimistic, bringing an increase in construction steel demand, but the real estate fundamentals are weak. Plate demand still has concerns [4][72][126] - Although the industrial contradictions in the steel market during the holiday have accumulated and steel prices are still prone to pressure, the downstream demand is recovering, the steel market fundamentals will improve marginally, and with the fermentation of policy expectations, steel prices may stabilize and rebound in the peak season [5][13][127] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Steel prices fluctuated weakly in February - Due to the holiday, the industrial contradictions in the steel market accumulated, the trading logic returned to the industrial end, and steel prices were under pressure. As of February 27, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts decreased by 1.95% and 2.22% respectively compared with the end of last month, and the spot prices also declined [11] - In February, steel - related price differences changed. The basis strengthened, the futures price curve remained in a contango pattern but with a lower premium than in previous years, the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar shrank, and the regional spread of building materials returned to normal [12] - Looking forward, steel prices are still under pressure due to accumulated contradictions, but they are at a relatively low level. As demand recovers and policy expectations are strong, steel prices may stabilize and rebound in the peak season [13] 2. Steel inventories increased significantly - As of the week of February 27, the total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 44.40% month - on - month and 10.47% year - on - year. Construction steel and plate inventories both increased, with construction steel having a more significant increase [24][28] - Both steel social and factory inventories increased. Social inventory increased by 45.47% month - on - month, and factory inventory increased by 41.93% month - on - month [29] - Rebar inventory increased significantly during the holiday, and the de - stocking pressure increased. The total rebar inventory increased by 68.36% month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio was at a relatively high level. The social inventory of rebar had obvious regional differentiation [36][37] - Hot - rolled coil inventory remained high, and the pressure needed to be relieved. The total hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 27.16% month - on - month and year - on - year, and the inventories of its main downstream products also increased significantly [45] 3. Steel supply increased steadily - In 2026, steel mill production was relatively stable, and steel supply increased steadily. The daily average crude steel production of key steel enterprises in January increased significantly compared with the previous month but was still lower than the same period last year [49] - High - frequency data showed that steel mill production was stable, and supply increased steadily, with obvious differences between varieties. Due to the shutdown of short - process steel mills during the holiday, the output of construction steel decreased, while the output of plates increased steadily [52][56] - Steel mill profitability did not improve. The proportion of profitable steel mills was relatively low, and the profitability of different regions was also differentiated. After the festival, short - process steel mills will resume production, but the probability of a significant increase in production is not high [57] - Rebar production was low during the holiday but is expected to increase after the festival, and the supply pressure may increase. Hot - rolled coil production remained high, and the supply pressure needed to be relieved [62][67] 4. Steel demand improved marginally 4.1 High - frequency indicators showed seasonal weakness - Due to the holiday, steel demand weakened, and high - frequency indicators showed a seasonal decline. In February, the total steel demand decreased by 18.90% month - on - month and 11.66% year - on - year. The demand for construction steel decreased more significantly [72] - Rebar demand will improve marginally, but the performance of downstream industries varies, and the quality of peak - season demand needs further observation. Hot - rolled coil demand was weak and stable, and there were still concerns about demand [78][85] 4.2 Steel exports faced challenges - In 2025, China's steel exports were strong. In December, the export volume reached a monthly record high, and the annual export volume also refreshed the record. The export of some varieties showed significant growth, and the export destinations were also differentiated [92][93][95] - In 2026, although there is still arbitrage momentum for direct steel exports, the output impulse may face more policy restrictions, and there is a risk of a decline in direct exports [95] 4.3 The domestic economy showed resilience - In January 2026, the core CPI showed a "good start" sign of inflation, and the PPI was supported by input factors, but the manufacturing PMI declined, and the "good start" of credit was not satisfactory [100][101][103] - In the real estate market, sales were under pressure year - on - year, and the improvement of real estate enterprise funds was limited, but positive policies were continuously introduced, and the downward drag effect may weaken. Infrastructure investment is expected to be optimistic, and there may be an inflection point in the industry, which may bring an increase in steel demand [104][108][118] 5. Conclusion - The industrial contradictions in the steel market accumulated during the holiday, and steel prices fluctuated weakly in February. Steel inventories increased significantly, supply was stable with variety differentiation, and demand continued to weaken but will improve marginally after the festival [126] - Although steel prices are still under pressure, with the recovery of demand and the fermentation of policy expectations, steel prices may stabilize and rebound in the peak season, and attention should be paid to demand performance and domestic policies [127]