产业矛盾待解，锰硅低位震荡：2026年3月锰硅月报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the spot and futures prices of ferromanganese silicon (FeMnSi) oscillated at a low level under the dominance of the real - world logic as industry contradictions accumulated near the holiday [3]. - Before the holiday, steel mills actively replenished stocks, but the inventory pressure on FeMnSi production enterprises was not alleviated. Their inventory levels continued to rise, mainly concentrated in the main production areas, and gradually converted into exchange warehouse receipts. The high overall inventory continued to suppress the price trend of FeMnSi [3]. - During the holiday, FeMnSi enterprises maintained stable production. The output contraction trend did not continue, and with high in - plant inventory and the gradual launch of new production capacity, the supply pressure needed to be alleviated. The relatively positive factor was that raw material prices rose steadily, the cost - support effect gradually emerged, and production enterprises' losses increased, limiting production enthusiasm and making a significant increase in production less likely, which supported the FeMnSi price. Attention should be paid to changes in the ore end [3]. - Affected by the holiday, steel mills' production weakened in February, and the demand for FeMnSi was under pressure. After the holiday, steel mills would gradually resume production, and the demand for FeMnSi would improve marginally. However, the contradictions in the steel market were not resolved, and production - restriction policies still existed, so the improvement in demand was limited, and the boosting effect was not strong. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of short - process steel mills [3]. - In general, under the situation of stable supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of FeMnSi were weak. Coupled with high inventory pressure, the FeMnSi price was still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factor was that as major meetings approached, domestic policy expectations increased, and the weight of macro trading would rise. It was expected that the market operation logic would switch between weak reality and strong expectation, and the FeMnSi trend would maintain an oscillating state. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and the production situation of FeMnSi enterprises [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2 - Month FeMnSi Oscillated at a Low Level - Since December last year, the spot and futures prices of FeMnSi had oscillated upwards, and the price of the main contract exceeded the 6,000 yuan/ton mark. However, at the beginning of the new year, the market operation logic returned to the industrial end, and near the holiday, industry contradictions accumulated, causing the FeMnSi price to decline under pressure, giving back most of the previous gains [8]. - By February 25, the closing price of the main FeMnSi contract was 5,752 yuan/ton, a 2.04% decrease from the end - of - last - month value. The spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Tianjin, and Ningxia also decreased compared with the end - of - last - month values [8]. - The spot and futures trends of FeMnSi were similar. Near the holiday, spot trading tended to stagnate, and the fluctuation range was lower than that of futures. The basis continued to rise from a low level [8]. 3.2 FeMnSi Inventory Rose to a High Level - As of the week of February 20, the total in - plant inventory of FeMnSi production enterprises was 394,800 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the end - of - last - month value, hitting a new high. The inventory was significantly higher than the same period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 266,300 tons and a growth rate of 207% [17]. - By region, inventories in all regions increased in February. The largest increase was in Ningxia, with a new inventory of 311,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from the end - of - last - month value. Inner Mongolia's inventory also increased, and other regions had a slight increase in inventory [17]. - Before the holiday, steel mills actively replenished stocks, and the inventory available days continued to increase. The inventory available days of steel mills in February were 18.57 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.09 days. Most regions' inventory available days continued to rise, and the inventory levels in all regions were significantly higher than the same period last year [25]. - As of February 25, the number of FeMnSi warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 46,044, and the effective forecast volume was 2,365, with month - on - month increases of 8,131 and 571 respectively. The converted FeMnSi weight was 242,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43,500 tons [26]. 3.3 FeMnSi Supply Ran Steadily - In January, FeMnSi production increased. The output was 854,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,500 tons and a growth rate of 1.24%. The largest increase was in Inner Mongolia, and the output in Guangxi and Guizhou also increased, while that in Ningxia decreased [28][31]. - In 2025, the FeMnSi output showed a V - shaped change. The annual cumulative output was 10,126,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22,100 tons and a decline rate of 0.22%. The monthly output was lowest in May and highest in October. The annual average monthly operating rate was 42.27%, a decrease of 6.45% compared with last year, but the output did not decline significantly due to new production capacity. The average monthly in - production capacity in 2025 was 1,905,100 tons, a significant increase of 15.05% compared with the same period last year. The FeMnSi production capacity to be put into production in 2026 was as high as 3,086,500 tons [31]. - As of the week of February 20, the operating rate of 187 independent FeMnSi enterprises was 35.84%, and the daily average output was 27,695 tons, showing a stable operation. The daily average output was slightly higher than the same period last year. The output in Inner Mongolia increased, while that in Ningxia decreased. Other regions' production was stable [35]. - The cost of FeMnSi production increased. As of February 25, the spot production costs in the northern and southern regions were 5,962 yuan/ton and 6,222 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month increases of 74.8 yuan and 7.8 yuan. Enterprises' losses increased, and the probability of a significant increase in production was not high, but attention should be paid to the pressure brought by new production capacity in the main production areas [44]. - The cost - support effect emerged, but its sustainability needed to be tracked. The supply - demand pattern of manganese ore did not change significantly, and the port inventory was stable. After the holiday, FeMnSi production enterprises had replenishment demand, but the positive effect was limited. Attention should be paid to changes in port ore - handling volume, South African manganese ore export policies, and the weak supply - demand situation of coke [46]. 3.4 FeMnSi Demand Improved Marginally - Affected by the holiday, steel mills' production weakened, and the demand for FeMnSi was under pressure. The production of long - process steel mills was stable, while that of short - process steel mills was significantly weakened. The steel output decreased, and the weekly demand for FeMnSi converted from the output of the five major steel products was 111,700 tons, a 4.73% decrease from the end - of - last - month value [54]. - After the holiday, steel mills would gradually resume production, especially short - process steel mills, and the demand for FeMnSi would experience seasonal recovery. However, the improvement in demand needed to be tracked. The downstream resumption of construction steel had a time lag, and steel mills' profitability did not improve significantly. During major meetings, environmental protection production - restriction policies would affect raw material demand [55]. 3.5 Outlook for the Future - Near the holiday, FeMnSi industry contradictions accumulated, and in February, the spot and futures prices oscillated at a low level. Before the holiday, steel mills' inventory replenishment did not relieve the inventory pressure on FeMnSi production enterprises. The inventory was high and concentrated in the main production areas, and was gradually converted into exchange warehouse receipts, which continued to suppress the FeMnSi price [63]. - During the holiday, FeMnSi enterprises' production was stable, the output contraction trend did not continue, and with high in - plant inventory and new production capacity, the supply pressure needed to be alleviated. The cost - support effect emerged, and the probability of a significant increase in production was not high, which supported the FeMnSi price. Attention should be paid to changes in the ore end [63]. - Affected by the holiday, steel mills' production weakened in February, and the demand for FeMnSi was under pressure. After the holiday, the demand would improve marginally, but the improvement was limited due to unresolved steel - market contradictions and production - restriction policies. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of short - process steel mills [63]. - In general, the FeMnSi fundamentals were weak under stable supply and weak demand, and the price was still prone to pressure. As major meetings approached, domestic policy expectations increased, and the market operation logic would switch between weak reality and strong expectation. The FeMnSi trend would maintain an oscillating state. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and the production situation of FeMnSi enterprises [63].