铝周报：地缘冲突主导，铝价短时偏强-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In the electrolytic aluminum sector, the intensifying tension between the US and Iran, the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have led to a rise in market risk - aversion sentiment. Fundamentally, 7.05 million tons of alumina production capacity in six Middle - Eastern countries may be affected. After the holiday, downstream industries are slowly resuming work, with the aluminum processing start - up rate increasing by 4.2% to 57%. Aluminum ingot inventory is 1.157 million tons, 265,000 tons more than before the holiday, and aluminum rod inventory is 398,000 tons, 92,000 tons more than before the holiday. In the short - term, the market is mainly trading on the "conflict escalation" logic, and aluminum prices may rise strongly on Monday. In the medium - term, the market depends on the further spread of the conflict. If it continues to escalate, it will be beneficial for aluminum prices. Also, the shipping safety of the Strait of Hormuz directly affects the supply stability of electrolytic aluminum, which accounts for 9% of global supply. If the conflict cools down quickly, the prices of non - ferrous metals that have risen due to geopolitical premiums may fall back [3][9]. - In the cast aluminum sector, after the holiday, the aluminum alloy start - up rate increased by 6.2 to 53.1%. Enterprises mainly focused on equipment maintenance and furnace pre - heating in the early stage. Although it has improved the start - up rate, the actual output has not returned to the pre - holiday normal level. The terminal industries' resumption progress is advancing in an orderly manner, but the market inquiry atmosphere is only gradually warming up. Currently, downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory for rigid needs, and a full recovery is expected after March. The cost of primary aluminum is expected to be strong this week due to macro - factors, and scrap aluminum prices will follow. Overall, cast aluminum prices are strong in the short - term, and long - term trends depend on geopolitical conflict changes [3][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Data | Contract | 2026/2/13 | 2026/2/27 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME Aluminum 3 - month | 3090.5 | 3141.5 | 51.0 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Aluminum Continued Third | 23355 | 23980 | 625.0 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Aluminum Ratio | 7.6 | 7.6 | 0.1 | | | LME Spot Premium | - 35.27 | - 12.09 | 23.2 | US dollars/ton | | LME Aluminum Inventory | 481550 | 465550 | - 16000.0 | Tons | | SHFE Aluminum Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 154332 | 289298 | 134966.0 | Tons | | Spot Average Price | 23288 | 23428 | 139.5 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium/Discount | - 170 | - 170 | 0.0 | Yuan/ton | | Southern Storage Spot Average Price | 23374 | 23473 | 98.5 | Yuan/ton | | Shanghai - Guangdong Price Difference | - 86 | - 45 | 41.0 | Yuan/ton | | Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory | 89.2 | 115.7 | 26.5 | Tons | | Theoretical Average Cost of Electrolytic Aluminum | 15816.16 | 15824.65 | 8.5 | Yuan/ton | | Weekly Average Profit of Electrolytic Aluminum | 7471.85 | 7602.85 | 131.0 | Yuan/ton | | Cast Aluminum SMM Spot | 23650 | 23800 | 150.0 | Yuan/ton | | Cast Aluminum Baotai Spot | 23100 | 23200 | 100.0 | Yuan/ton | | Refined - Scrap Price Difference - Foshan | 2624 | 2511 | - 113.0 | Yuan/ton | | Refined - Scrap Price Difference - Shanghai | 3430 | 3318 | - 112.0 | Yuan/ton | | Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 66366 | 64454 | - 1912.0 | Tons | [5] 3.2 Market Review - Electrolytic Aluminum: The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market was 23,428 yuan/ton, 139.5 yuan/ton higher than before the holiday; the weekly average price of the Southern Storage spot was 23,473 yuan/ton, 98.5 yuan/ton higher than the previous week. Macroscopically, the US and Israel's military strike on Iran, the suspension of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei have occurred. The US has officially started to impose a 10% global tariff, and is preparing to increase it to 15%. Regarding the Fed's stance, different officials have different views. The initial jobless claims in the US last week were 212,000. The third - round indirect negotiation between Iran and the US has ended, and the next technical negotiation will be held in Vienna next Monday. Shanghai has optimized real - estate policies, and China and the US are maintaining communication on economic and trade consultations. In terms of consumption, the start - up rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing industries reached 57%, a 4.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. In terms of inventory, on February 26, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 265,000 tons to 1.157 million tons compared with before the holiday, and the aluminum rod inventory was 398,000 tons, 92,000 tons more than before the holiday [6][7]. - Cast Aluminum: On Friday, the SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy was 24,350 yuan/ton, 350 yuan/ton higher than the previous Friday. The spot price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 was 23,700 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton higher. The refined - scrap price differences in Foshan and Shanghai increased. The start - up rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises increased to 58.9% week - on - week. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory was 68,000 tons, 314 tons more than the previous Friday [8]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Electrolytic Aluminum: The short - term market is mainly driven by the "conflict escalation" logic, and aluminum prices may rise strongly on Monday. In the medium - term, the market depends on the further spread of the conflict and the shipping safety of the Strait of Hormuz. If the conflict cools down quickly, the prices may fall back [9]. - Cast Aluminum: Cast aluminum prices are strong in the short - term due to macro - factors and cost support. In the long - term, trends depend on geopolitical conflict changes [10]. 3.4 Industry News - In 2025, EGA's cast metal production reached a record high of 2.84 million tons [18]. - Global aluminum producers proposed an aluminum premium of $220 - 250 per ton for the April - June period in Japan, a 13% - 28% increase compared to this quarter [18]. - Century Aluminum's primary aluminum shipments in Q4 2025 decreased by 14% quarter - on - quarter. In 2026, the 50,000 - ton idle capacity of the Mt. Holly aluminum plant is expected to resume production in April and reach full production by the end of Q2; the Icelandic aluminum plant is expected to resume production earlier than planned, starting at the end of April and reaching near - full production by the end of July [18]. 3.5 Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts such as the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 - SHFE Aluminum Continued Third, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium/discount, Shanghai aluminum inter - period spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, electrolytic aluminum cost and profit, electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventory seasonal changes, cast aluminum futures and spot prices, refined - scrap price difference, and cast aluminum exchange inventory [14][17][28]