中原期货晨会纪要-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict in the Middle East has escalated, affecting the financial markets in the region. The market impact on a global scale depends on potential changes in three key signals: US military mobilization, changes in the Iranian political situation, and the scope of conflict spillover. The general rule is that the safe - haven asset gold is better than the US dollar, long - term oil prices are still determined by supply and demand, the performance of the US stock market is directly related to the degree of US military intervention and the trend of the war situation, and there is no significant impact on Chinese assets [7][8]. - In the short term, the market style may switch from "policy expectation" to "performance realization". A - shares are likely to open lower due to the decline of US stock indices and geopolitical conflicts, but the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged [18][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry - On March 2, 2026, among domestic chemical products, the prices of crude oil, fuel oil, plastic, PP, PTA, PVC, asphalt, methanol, and LPG rose, with fuel oil having the largest increase of 3.378%, while the prices of coking coal, coke, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, ethylene glycol, styrene, glass, soda ash, pulp, and caustic soda declined, with coking coal having a decline of 1.417% [4]. 3.2 Agricultural Products - On March 2, 2026, among domestic agricultural products, the prices of soybean No. 1, rapeseed meal, white sugar, yellow corn, corn starch, and palm oil rose, with yellow corn having an increase of 0.932%, while the prices of soybean No. 2, soybean meal, eggs, cotton yarn declined, with soybean meal having a decline of 0.247% [4]. 3.3 Macro News - On February 28, Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei was assassinated and killed. The Iranian government announced a 40 - day national mourning and will soon elect a new supreme leader. US President Trump said that the US military action against Iran may last about four weeks and that he has agreed to dialogue with the new Iranian leadership [7]. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated China's stance on the Iranian situation during a phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: stop military actions immediately, return to dialogue and negotiation as soon as possible, and jointly oppose unilateral actions [7]. - This week, there are many major global market events, including the opening of the 2026 National Two Sessions, the release of China's February PMI, foreign exchange and gold reserve data, and new product launches by Apple and Alibaba [8]. - Many new - energy vehicle manufacturers released their February delivery data, and some offered car - buying discounts in March [9]. - The 15th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference decided that the 4th session of the 14th National Committee of the CPPCC will be held in Beijing on March 4, 2026 [9]. 3.4 Morning Meeting Views on Major Products 3.4.1 Agricultural Products - White sugar: On February 27, the price of the main contract rose 0.74%. In the short term, the price center may move up further, but it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure level and import policy changes [11]. - Corn: On February 27, the price of the main contract rose 0.77%. The short - term trend is high - level oscillation, but there is a risk of correction. Attention should be paid to the upper and lower support levels [11]. - Peanuts: On February 27, the price of the main contract fell slightly by 0.15%. The current price oscillates around the cost line. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the 7850 - 8000 yuan range [11]. - Live pigs: The current overall supply exceeds demand, and the spot price is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and the overall market remains in bottom - level oscillation [11]. - Eggs: The current national egg spot price is mainly stable. The near - term and long - term prices show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, with a large basis, suppressing the near - term prices, and the long - term prices remain oscillating after the decline [12]. - Red dates: After the Spring Festival, the market is slowly resuming. The spot price of red dates is temporarily stable, and the market is in bottom - level oscillation. It is recommended to buy low and sell high [12]. - Cotton: On February 27, the price of the main contract rose slightly by 0.29%. In the long - term, cotton prices are strongly supported by the expectation of supply tightening, but there is a risk of correction due to insufficient demand [12]. 3.4.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic soda: The fundamental situation of caustic soda remains in an oversupply pattern, and the near - term contracts may continue to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of supply - side disturbances on prices [12]. - Coking coal and coke: After the Spring Festival, the prices of coking coal and coke are under pressure, and the fundamentals are expected to continue in a weakly oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to the linkage effect of rising energy prices due to the Middle East situation [12]. - Double - offset paper: The price of the main contract of double - offset paper is oscillating downward. The supply - side pressure persists, and the demand - side purchasing enthusiasm is still low. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy [12]. - Urea: The price of urea in the domestic spot market is running strongly. The demand in the agricultural peak season is supportive, but factors such as the release of stored goods and price - stabilizing policies may suppress the upward space. Attention should be paid to the 1750 - 1940 yuan/ton operating range [13]. 3.4.3 Non - ferrous Metals - Gold and silver: The prices of gold and silver are oscillating at high levels with large fluctuations. The increase in inflation pressure, policy uncertainty of the Federal Reserve, the increase in speculative net long positions, and the escalation of the Middle East situation have promoted the rise of precious metals [13]. - Copper and aluminum: The global macro - environment shows a pattern of weak balance and high volatility. The domestic social inventory of copper and aluminum is in a seasonal accumulation period. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand and supply - side risks due to the Middle East situation [13]. - Alumina: After the Spring Festival, the overall inventory of the domestic alumina market has decreased slightly, but the oversupply situation has not been fundamentally reversed. It is expected to remain at a low level and wait for new market drivers [15]. 3.4.4 Steel and Iron Alloys - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: After the Spring Festival, the inventory of the five major steel products continues to accumulate. Rebar still faces inventory accumulation pressure in the short term, while the demand for hot - rolled coil starts faster. The steel prices are expected to have limited downward space and upward rebound space. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the specified price ranges [14]. - Ferroalloys: After the Spring Festival, the fundamentals of ferroalloys have not changed much. The supply has increased while the demand has decreased. From a macro perspective, the prices of commodities with high import dependence and external pricing power fluctuate more. In the short term, a bullish view on corrections is recommended, and industrial hedging should wait for better opportunities [14]. 3.4.5 Lithium Carbonate - On February 27, the price of the main contract of lithium carbonate rose 1.37%. The supply - demand pattern is tightening. It is recommended to consider buying on dips with a light position, but attention should be paid to the risk of sharp fluctuations due to insufficient market liquidity [14]. 3.4.6 Options and Finance - Stock index options: On February 27, the three major A - share indices showed different trends. The trading volume of options decreased, the open interest increased, and the implied volatility decreased. Trend investors should focus on arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can buy straddles to bet on increased volatility when the volatility drops significantly [16]. - Stock indices: Geopolitical risks have resurfaced. A - shares are likely to open lower, but the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the support of funds for a potential rebound [20]. - RMB: Since February, the RMB has continued its unilateral appreciation trend. The central bank's decision to reduce the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales helps to weaken the expectation of unilateral RMB appreciation and maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate [19].