美伊冲突升级，锌价波动加大

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the main contract of Shanghai zinc rose in price at the opening and then adjusted in a volatile manner. The escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran has increased the volatility of zinc prices. The relaxation of real - estate purchase restrictions in Shanghai is beneficial to the repair of the real - estate sector, and the market is waiting for more stimulus policies from the Two Sessions [3][9]. - In terms of fundamentals, although Iran's zinc ore production accounts for less than 2% of the global total in 2025 and China's imports of Iranian zinc concentrate are small, the expected shortfall in overseas zinc ore supply this year and the high dependence of some Southeast Asian and domestic smelters on Iranian ore will intensify the market's expectation of tight zinc ore supply. The zinc ore import window remains closed, and domestic northern mines will not fully resume work until April - May. The processing fee in March has a limited increase, and the cost side still provides support [3][9]. - In February, refined zinc production was 504,600 tons, with a decline slightly higher than expected. It is expected that the production in March will increase by 14.92% month - on - month to 579,900 tons. The demand side is recovering slowly and is differentiated. After the Lantern Festival, the operating rate of primary enterprises is expected to return to the normal range, and the demand is entering the verification period of consumption quality [3][9]. - Domestic inventories have increased as expected. The inventory increase during the Spring Festival week was 49,000 tons, and the increase in the first week after the festival was 10,200 tons, both higher than last year. The inventory has reached 219,900 tons, slightly exceeding market expectations [3][9]. - Overall, the escalation of the US - Iran situation may disrupt the global supply chain, support the cost side of the zinc market, and the rapid increase in risk - aversion sentiment is also beneficial to zinc prices. The supply and demand in the fundamentals are both increasing, and a turning point in inventory reduction is expected in mid - March. In the short term, macro - geopolitical events dominate the zinc price trend. With cost and risk - aversion support, the zinc price is expected to gap up at the opening. If the situation does not worsen further, the zinc price trend is expected to return to the fundamentals, focusing on the strength of consumption recovery [3][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - From February 20th to February 27th, the SHFE zinc price increased from 24,195 yuan/ton to 24,710 yuan/ton, a rise of 515 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price decreased from 3378 US dollars/ton to 3308 US dollars/ton, a decline of 70 US dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio increased from 7.16 to 7.47, an increase of 0.31; the SHFE inventory increased from 87,025 tons to 126,052 tons, an increase of 39,027 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 101,575 tons to 97,350 tons, a decrease of 4225 tons; the social inventory increased from 160,400 tons to 219,900 tons, an increase of 59,500 tons; the spot premium remained at - 40 yuan/ton [4] 3.2 Market Review - After the Spring Festival, the main contract of Shanghai zinc followed the collective small - scale price increase of the non - ferrous metal sector and then entered a volatile consolidation pattern, closing at 24,710 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 0.53%. On Friday night, it was volatile and weak. LME zinc fluctuated in a narrow range. With the changing macro - narrative and repeated market risk preferences, the US dollar fluctuated in a narrow range, and LME zinc had no strong one - way driving force, closing at 3308 US dollars/ton with a weekly decline of 2.07% [5] - In the spot market, as of February 27th, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was concentrated between 24,430 - 24,540 yuan/ton, with a discount of 30 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2603 contract. In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 24,460 - 24,540 yuan/ton, with a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the 2603 contract and a premium of 40 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was mainly traded at 24,360 - 24,510 yuan/ton, with a discount of 125 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference narrowed. In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded at 24,410 - 24,570 yuan/ton, with a discount of 50 yuan/ton to a premium of 10 yuan/ton to the 2603 contract, and Tianjin was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to Shanghai. After the festival, traders resumed work, the supply of zinc ingots in the market was relatively abundant, but downstream consumption had not fully recovered, and the downstream that had resumed work had not digested raw materials, resulting in poor purchasing enthusiasm and sluggish market transactions, with the spot showing a small - discount structure [6] - In terms of inventory, as of February 27th, the LME zinc ingot inventory was 97,350 tons, a weekly decrease of 4225 tons. The SHFE inventory was 126,052 tons, an increase of 39,027 tons. As of February 26th, the social inventory was 219,900 tons, an increase of 59,500 tons compared with February 12th and an increase of 10,200 tons compared with February 24th. After the festival, there were delivery situations among traders in various places. At the same time, the resumption of production and work of downstream enterprises was relatively slow, with more inbound and less outbound in many warehouses, and the inventory continued to accumulate [7] 3.3 Industry News - SMM data shows that the processing fee for domestic zinc concentrate in March 2026 is 1300 - 1700 yuan/metal ton, with a monthly average increase of 100 yuan/metal ton [13] - ILZSG: In 2025, the global zinc market had a supply shortage of 33,000 tons, narrowing from the 69,000 - ton shortage in 2024. In 2025, global refined zinc production increased by 2.1% to 13.83 million tons, and global refined zinc demand increased by 1.9% to 13.863 million tons [13] - Newmont: In 2025, its zinc concentrate production totaled 231,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The production guidance for 2026 is 220,000 tons [13] - New Century: In the fourth quarter of 2025, its zinc concentrate production was 30,000 tons, basically flat quarter - on - quarter. In 2025, its salable zinc production totaled 101,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%. The production guidance for 2026 is 86,300 - 98,300 tons [13] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The document provides multiple charts, including the price trend charts of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the internal - external price ratio, spot premium and discount, inventory changes, and downstream enterprise operating rates, etc., which visually show the market situation of zinc [15][17][20]