氧化铝周报：地缘扰动情绪带动氧化铝跟随偏强-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to geopolitical risks such as the military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran and the suspension of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, alumina follows the market sentiment and rebounds. In the long - term, the abundant supply of ore may lead to a downward risk in prices, the cost support will decline, the profit of the alumina industry is expected to recover, the expectation of enterprise复产 is enhanced, and the new production capacity will increase, suppressing alumina prices to be bearish in the long - term [3][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - The alumina futures (active) dropped from 2841 yuan/ton on February 13, 2026, to 2744 yuan/ton on February 27, 2026, a decrease of 97 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina spot price rose from 2646 yuan/ton to 2659 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased from - 4 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Australian alumina dropped from 308 US dollars/ton to 306 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton. The import profit and loss increased from - 54.09 yuan/ton to - 24.30 yuan/ton, an increase of 29.8 yuan/ton. The exchange warehouse inventory increased from 309875 tons to 310658 tons, an increase of 783 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. The prices of domestic bauxite in different regions remained unchanged, and the CIF price of Guinea bauxite dropped from 60.5 US dollars/ton to 60 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.5 US dollars/ton [4] 3.2 Market Review - The main alumina futures contract dropped 3.41% last week, closing at 2744 yuan/ton. The national weighted average spot price on Friday was 2659 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton from before the Spring Festival. The domestic bauxite market has not started substantial transactions, with most mines in Shanxi and Henan still shut down. Some mines will resume production around the Lantern Festival, and some will postpone until after the "Two Sessions". Overseas, the new ore production capacity in Guinea is steadily shipping, with an expected increase in supply. Although the supply in Australia has decreased due to the rainy season, the increase in Guinea's supply can cover the gap, and the overall import ore supply is still in surplus. On the supply side, some enterprises had minor roaster maintenance during the Spring Festival and resumed normal production after the festival, resulting in a slight increase in alumina supply. As of February 26, the built - in alumina production capacity in China was 113.9 million tons, the operating production capacity was 89.5 million tons, and the operating rate was 78.58%. On the consumption side, the production of the electrolytic aluminum industry remained basically stable, with no overall production cuts or restarts. In terms of new production, the new production capacity of an enterprise in Inner Mongolia is slowly being released, and the demand for alumina is relatively stable. The alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory last Friday was 311,000 tons, an increase of 783 tons from before the Spring Festival, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [5] 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core viewpoints, in the short - term, alumina rebounds with market sentiment due to geopolitical factors. In the long - term, with abundant ore supply, prices may decline, cost support will weaken, industry profits are expected to recover, and new production capacity will suppress prices [7] 3.4 Industry News - Metro's 2025 annual report shows that the bauxite shipment volume was 6.2 million wet tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%. Ghana has set the date for banning the export of bauxite ore in 2030, requiring that raw ore products such as bauxite, manganese ore, and iron ore be processed domestically to increase added value, extend the industrial chain, and create more jobs [8] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month - to - first - continuous spread, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF prices, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina exchange inventory, and alumina cost - profit [9]