中泰期货晨会纪要-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term strategy for stock index futures is risk defense, and after the sentiment stabilizes, IM/IC may perform better than large - cap stocks. Geopolitical risks may suppress the performance of the equity market and cause bond yields to decline. The black, non - ferrous, agricultural, and energy - chemical sectors are all affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships, with different trends and investment suggestions for each variety [9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee discussed the draft of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and the government work report, emphasizing more proactive macro - policies. The US and Israel launched an air strike on Iran, leading to the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, which impacted the Middle East financial market. The conflict may last for about four weeks, and Iran has launched counter - attacks. The global shipping industry has been affected, and some shipping companies have adjusted their routes [4][5][6]. - In China, the 2026 National Two Sessions will be held, and economic data such as February PMI, foreign exchange, and gold reserves will be released. Internationally, the situation in Iran, the Russia - US - Ukraine negotiations, the Fed's Beige Book, and the February non - farm payroll report are attracting attention. Many companies will release their financial reports [5]. - South Korea's exports in February increased by 29% year - on - year, with semiconductor exports increasing by 160.8%. OPEC+ agreed in principle to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April. The central bank lowered the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales from 20% to 0. The US January PPI and core PPI increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The land acquisition amount of TOP100 enterprises from January to February decreased by 52.4% year - on - year [6][7]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The short - term strategy is risk defense. After the sentiment stabilizes, IM/IC may perform better than large - cap stocks. Geopolitical risks may suppress the performance of the equity market [9]. Bond Futures - Geopolitical risks may suppress the performance of the equity market and cause bond yields to decline [10]. Black Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - The trading rhythm this year is earlier than last year. Steel mills' orders are mixed, and downstream demand is weak. The supply of iron ore is abundant, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The overall steel price is expected to fluctuate, with suggestions to sell the wide - straddle option and hold it, and to take profit on short positions in iron ore in the short - to - medium term and hold some short positions lightly in the long term [12][13]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. After the holiday, the supply will recover faster than the demand, and the market is expected to continue the weak - fluctuation trend [14]. Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to hold long positions as the market is in a tight - balance state on a monthly basis. For silicomanganese, it is recommended to wait and see as the market is in a state of monthly surplus [15]. Soda Ash and Glass - It is recommended to wait and see for now. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new production capacity. For glass, pay attention to the actual changes in production lines and the subsequent demand [16]. Non - ferrous and New Materials Copper - Affected by geopolitical conflicts, copper prices may rise with precious metals in the short term but will return to their own logic later, with a wide - range fluctuation [17]. Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory has increased. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to maintain the previous bearish view [19]. Lead - The social inventory of lead has increased, but consumption is expected to improve in March. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [21]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to buy on dips, as supply disturbances increase the expectation of tight raw materials, and demand is improving [23]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and polysilicon is expected to fluctuate in a wide range. It is recommended to operate within the range for both [25]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The domestic cotton market is expected to be bullish, with attention paid to post - holiday demand and geopolitical impacts [27]. Sugar - The sugar market is in a state of short - term supply surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The supply surplus has been adjusted downward [28]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs is expected to rise slightly in March, but the futures price may enter a shock pattern. The far - month contracts are under pressure [30]. Apples - High - quality apple sources are expected to be strong, and the futures price may be bullish [32]. Corn - It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices, and a 5 - 7 reverse spread can be considered. Corn faces short - term pressure but is supported by low inventory [33]. Red Dates - The red date market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with attention paid to sales and inventory [34]. Pigs - In March, the pig market is expected to be in a state of strong supply and weak demand, and it is not recommended to short the near - month futures [35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The short - term market is dominated by geopolitical factors. The price may rise, but the increase is limited. The market has high uncertainty [37]. Fuel Oil - The short - term trading focus is the impact of geopolitical - led oil prices on fuel oil, which is currently bullish [39]. Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure but are supported by rising raw material prices. It is necessary to guard against the risk of a rebound [41]. Synthetic Rubber - It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral trading, and the price may continue to decline in the short term [42]. Methanol - The current supply - demand situation has slightly improved. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the situation in the Middle East on Iran's methanol supply. It is recommended to have a bullish - shock view [43]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is expected to fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to the supply - demand relationship and the impact of warehouse receipts [44]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices will follow oil prices, with a smaller increase. Pay attention to post - winter - storage replenishment demand [45]. PVC - PVC may be bullish in the short term but has not improved in terms of core supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to be cautious and operate in a range [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - In the short term, the polyester industry chain is under supply - demand pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider a positive spread for PX or PTA 5 - 9 contracts [47]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The future supply of LPG is abundant, and the price is difficult to stay high. It is recommended to wait and see due to increased volatility [48]. Pulp - The port inventory of pulp has reached a new high, and the market sentiment has declined. Pay attention to inventory changes and price increases of finished products [50]. Logs - The forward spot price of logs is supported by cost. Pay attention to the impact of new delivery rules and the resumption of work in processing plants [51]. Urea - It is recommended to short on rallies in the urea futures market. The spot price has increased slightly, and the demand has weakened [52].