钢材周报：关注两会指引期价震荡企稳-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The 4th Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held in Beijing on March 4, 2026. Shanghai has issued the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" to further reduce housing purchase restrictions, adjusting the social insurance or individual income tax payment period for non - local residents or single adults to buy housing within the outer ring to 1 year or more before the purchase date [2]. - Last week, the production of rebar was 165,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons month - on - month; the apparent demand was 81,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons; the factory inventory was 233,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons; the social inventory was 568,000 tons, an increase of 73,000 tons; the total inventory was 801,000 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons. The production of hot - rolled coils was 310,000 tons, remaining the same month - on - month; the factory inventory was 95,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons; the social inventory was 357,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons; the total inventory was 452,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons; the apparent demand was 291,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons [2][6]. - Overall, last week's industrial data of the steel industry was average. The steel production decreased month - on - month, the post - holiday resumption of production was slow, the apparent demand recovered steadily, and the inventory continued to accumulate. It is expected that the post - holiday inventory inflection point will appear in about four weeks. With the approaching of the Two Sessions, the supply in the north is kept at a low level due to production restrictions, and the demand is expected to continue to rise. Supported by short - term expectations, the steel price is expected to stabilize with fluctuations [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (lots) | Total Open Interest (lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3067 | 12 | 0.39 | 3706677 | 2580465 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3215 | - 7 | - 0.22 | 1494469 | 1492800 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 750.5 | 4.5 | 0.60 | 863039 | 540573 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1093.5 | - 27.5 | - 2.45 | 3008084 | 721319 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1635.5 | - 46.5 | - 2.76 | 70334 | 42455 | Yuan/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures rebounded with fluctuations. The new housing policy in Shanghai boosted market sentiment. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2910 (+10) Yuan/ton, the price of Shanghai rebar was 3200 (-20) Yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3240 (0) Yuan/ton [5]. - The macro situation includes the upcoming 4th Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, the announcement of the first batch of enterprises meeting the "Steel Industry Specification Conditions (2025 Edition)" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" for housing purchase restrictions [5]. - The industrial situation shows that the steel production decreased month - on - month, the post - holiday resumption of production was slow, the apparent demand recovered steadily, and the inventory continued to accumulate. It is expected that the post - holiday inventory inflection point will appear in about four weeks. With the approaching of the Two Sessions, the supply in the north is kept at a low level due to production restrictions, and the demand is expected to continue to rise. Supported by short - term expectations, the steel price is expected to stabilize with fluctuations [6]. 3.3 Industry News - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is closely monitoring and will comprehensively evaluate the US tariff adjustment measures, and will decide on counter - measures against the US fentanyl - related tariffs and reciprocal tariffs. China is willing to have frank consultations with the US in the 6th round of China - US economic and trade consultations [7][8]. - On February 25, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the first batch of enterprises meeting the "Steel Industry Specification Conditions (2025 Edition)" [11]. - Some steel enterprises in North China have received a notice of temporary voluntary emission reduction, requiring them to implement phased emission reduction control from March 4 to March 11, with the blast furnace load voluntarily reduced by no less than 30% [11]. - On February 25, Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" to further reduce housing purchase restrictions [11]. - In the first month of the implementation of the steel export license policy, the market is experiencing "short - term pain" to seek a balance under the new rules. Affected by the new policy, the steel export volume in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to decline by 15% - 20% compared with 27.42 million tons in the first quarter of 2025 [11]. - On March 1, local time, US President Trump said that the military action against Iran may last about four weeks. The leaders of the UK, France, and Germany issued a joint statement, indicating that they may take "necessary defensive actions" against Iran [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the futures and monthly spread trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the basis trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the spot regional price difference trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the smelting profits of long - process steel mills, the profits of short - process electric furnaces in East China, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide, the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills, the production, inventory, and apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils, and the seasonal charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil monthly spreads and volume - rebar spreads [10][12][14][16][18][20][23][26][28][33][34][36][37][41][43][45]