豆粕周报：取消加菜粕加征关税，连粕震荡运行-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CBOT soybean May contract rose 20.25 to close at 1170 cents per bushel, a 1.76% increase; the soybean meal 05 contract rose 33 to close at 2833 yuan per ton, a 1.18% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 20 to close at 3080 yuan per ton, a 0.65% increase; the rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 22 to close at 2287 yuan per ton, a 0.95% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price remained flat compared to the previous week [5][8]. - The upward movement of US soybeans is due to the favorable US biodiesel policy driving up soybean oil prices, and expectations of increased strategic purchases of US soybeans by China when Trump visits China at the end of March. Domestic soybean meal is stronger than rapeseed meal. News of soybean customs clearance has disturbed the market, driving up prices. Spot prices are weak, and the basis has declined. The import window for Canadian rapeseed has reopened, and future supply is increasing, causing rapeseed meal to decline [5][8]. - Forecasts of increased precipitation in southern Brazil have alleviated concerns about drought, accelerating the harvest and increasing export supply. The implementation of the US biodiesel policy is beneficial to soybean oil demand, causing US soybeans to move upward. Currently, they are in a previous high-pressure zone, and the strength of the resistance should be monitored. Last week, news of extended import soybean customs clearance time boosted the market. Domestic oil mill operating rates have recovered, but downstream purchasing and restocking sentiment is weak. Soybean meal inventories are high, overall supply is sufficient, spot prices are relatively weak, and the basis has declined. The 100% additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal imports has been cancelled, and the anti-dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed imports has been significantly reduced to 5.9%. Future supply of Canadian rapeseed products is increasing. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate in the short term [5][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean price rose 20.25 to 1170 cents per bushel, a 1.76% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans rose 4 to 467 dollars per ton, a 0.86% increase; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans rose 5 to 514 dollars per ton, a 0.98% increase; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market rose 47.01 to 25.98 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal price rose 33 to 2833 yuan per ton, a 1.18% increase; the CZCE rapeseed meal price fell 22 to 2287 yuan per ton, a 0.95% decrease; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal price difference increased 55 to 546 yuan per ton; the East China spot price remained flat at 3080 yuan per ton; the South China spot price rose 20 to 3080 yuan per ton, a 0.65% increase; the South China spot - futures price difference decreased 13 to 247 yuan per ton [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The 2026 US soybean planting area is expected to increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres, in line with market expectations. The USDA Chief Economist warns that production costs are expected to remain high, squeezing planting profit margins [9]. - As of the week of February 19, 2026, US soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 season increased by 407,000 tons, compared to 798,000 tons the previous week. The cumulative sales volume for the current season is 35.65 million tons, with a sales progress of 83.2%, compared to 86.5% last year. China's net purchases of US soybeans for the week were 76,000 tons, with a cumulative purchase volume of 10.66 million tons and an unshipped volume of 4.5 million tons [9]. - As of the week of February 20, 2026, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.74 dollars per bushel, compared to 2.60 dollars per bushel the previous week; the truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in central Illinois was 58.98 cents per pound, compared to 56.66 cents per pound the previous week; the spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in central Illinois was 308.37 dollars per short ton, compared to 311.97 dollars per short ton the previous week; the price of No. 1 yellow soybeans per truck was 11.39 dollars per bushel, compared to 11.34 dollars per bushel the previous week [9][10]. - The NOPA monthly crushing report shows that the US soybean crushing volume in January 2026 was 221.564 million bushels, a 1.52% decrease from December. Compared to December 2024, it increased by 10.6%. The cumulative US soybean crushing volume from September 2025 to January 2026 was 1.088106 billion bushels, a 11.32% increase from the same period last year. The USDA's target for crushing demand growth in the 2025/2026 season is 5.11% [10]. - The US Environmental Protection Agency will submit a new biofuel blending mandate proposal to the White House on Wednesday, and the rule may be finalized by the end of March. The market is concerned about whether the proposal will increase the target usage of biodiesel and renewable diesel, which would significantly support soybean oil demand and prices [11]. - As of February 21, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 32.3%, compared to 24.7% the previous week and 36.4% last year, with a five - year average of 36.6%. Brazil's soybean exports in February are expected to be 10.69 million tons, lower than the previous week's estimate of 11.46 million tons [11]. - As of the week of February 25, 2026, the proportion of normal and excellent crop conditions in Argentina was 71%, compared to 75% the previous week and 68% last year. Forecasts show that cumulative precipitation in the Argentine soybean - growing areas will be below normal in the next 15 days, and the soybean production estimate remains in the range of 48 - 50 million tons [11]. - As of the week of February 20, 2026, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.1954 million tons, an increase of 421,500 tons from the previous week and 181,200 tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 842,500 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from the previous week and 343,700 tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 3.1591 million tons, a decrease of 64,500 tons from the previous week and 62,000 tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 5.594 million tons, an increase of 605,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 112,600 tons from the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of February 27, the national average daily soybean meal trading volume was 35,640 tons, including 32,040 tons of spot trading and 3,600 tons of forward trading. The average daily total trading volume in the week before the holiday was 34,860 tons. The average daily soybean meal pick - up volume was 110,960 tons, compared to 125,180 tons in the week before the holiday. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 588,600 tons, compared to 1.6879 million tons in the week before the holiday. The soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 9.89 days, compared to 12.59 days in the previous week [12]. Industry News - The SECEX agency reported that the pace of Brazilian soybean exports in the third week of February 2026 was lower than the same period last year. From February 1 to 20, Brazilian soybean exports were 4.085 million tons, compared to 6.428 million tons in February 2025. The average daily export volume so far in February is 314,205 tons, a 2.2% decrease year - on - year [14]. - The Agricultural Economics Institute of Mato Grosso reported that as of February 20, the soybean harvest progress in the 2025/26 season in the state had reached 65.75% of the planted area, higher than 51.01% a week ago, slightly lower than 66.16% in the same period last year, but still higher than the five - year average of 57.25% [14]. - The IMEA agency reported that as of the week of February 20, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso, Brazil was 613.00 reais per ton, compared to 628.17 reais per ton the previous week; the price of 46% protein soybean meal was 1597.94 reais per ton, compared to 1581.09 reais per ton the previous week; the average price of soybean oil was 5916.29 reais per ton, compared to 5912.42 reais per ton the previous week; the average price of soybeans was 101.84 reais per bag, compared to 102.16 reais per bag the previous week [14]. - Cargill announced that its terminal on the Santa Maria River in Para, Brazil, remains closed. Local indigenous people occupied the terminal, forcing workers to evacuate, halting operations. The terminal processes 5.5 million tons of corn and soybeans annually. Soybean growers in Para are worried about supply disruptions [15]. - According to the European Commission, as of February 22, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 1.89 million tons, compared to 1.96 million tons last year; the EU's rapeseed imports were 2.75 million tons, compared to 4.33 million tons last year; the EU's soybean imports were 8.11 million tons, compared to 9.13 million tons last year [15]. - US President Trump will visit China from March 31 to April 2, for a highly anticipated meeting with China's top leader. This will be the first face - to - face meeting between the two leaders since their meeting in South Korea in October last year [15]. - Statistics Canada's oilseed crushing data shows that in January 2026, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 1,053,420 tons, a 4.24% increase from the same period last year. The rapeseed oil production was 449,181 tons, a 5.99% increase year - on - year. The rapeseed meal production was 618,302 tons, a 4.57% increase year - on - year. The cumulative rapeseed crushing volume in the 2025/26 season is 6,115,197 tons, with rapeseed oil production of 2,591,237 tons and rapeseed meal production of 3,583,087 tons [16]. - According to foreign media reports, the 2025/26 soybean harvest rate in Parana, Brazil, has reached 37%. The state's agricultural economic department estimates the output at 22.12 million tons, consistent with the figure announced in January. Of the 5.77 million hectares of planted soybeans, 2.16 million hectares have been harvested. The current harvest progress lags behind the same period last year, but is normal compared to this year. Among the unharvested soybeans, 88% are in good condition, 11% are in average condition, and 1% are in poor condition [16]. - Reuters reported that the US Environmental Protection Agency plans to re - allocate at least 50% (possibly close to 75%) of the exempted biofuel blending obligations to large refineries, causing soybean oil prices to reach a recent high [16]. - Starting from March 1, 2026, China officially imposes a 5.9% anti - dumping duty on imported rapeseed from Canada for a period of 5 years. Starting from the same date, China officially cancels the 100% "anti - discrimination" tariff on rapeseed meal (oil cake) imported from Canada [17]. Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of US soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival prices, RMB spot exchange rates, regional crushing profits, soybean meal main contracts, management fund CBOT net positions, spot - futures price differences of soybean meal, regional soybean meal spot prices, soybean meal M 5 - 9 month spreads, Brazilian and Argentine soybean - growing area precipitation and temperature, Brazilian soybean harvest progress, Argentine soybean crop conditions, US soybean cumulative sales, weekly net sales, weekly exports, US oil mill crushing profits, soybean meal weekly average daily trading volume and pick - up volume, port and oil mill soybean inventories, oil mill weekly crushing volume, unexecuted contracts, oil mill soybean meal inventories, and feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days [18][19][20][23][25][26][30][31][32][33][35][37][39][41][46][47].