铁矿周报：两会预期支撑，铁矿震荡企稳-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The demand for iron ore is limited due to steel mill production restrictions in areas such as Tangshan, while overseas shipments have increased and port inventory has continued to rise. However, with the support of the Two Sessions' expectations, the futures price is expected to stabilize with fluctuations [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - SHFE rebar closed at 3067 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.39% from the previous week, with a total trading volume of 3,706,677 lots and a total open interest of 2,580,465 lots [2]. - SHFE hot-rolled coil closed at 3215 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan or 0.22%, with a total trading volume of 1,494,469 lots and a total open interest of 1,492,800 lots [2]. - DCE iron ore closed at 750.5 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan or 0.60%, with a total trading volume of 863,039 lots and a total open interest of 540,573 lots [2]. - DCE coking coal closed at 1093.5 yuan/ton, down 27.5 yuan or 2.45%, with a total trading volume of 3,008,084 lots and a total open interest of 721,319 lots [2]. - DCE coke closed at 1635.5 yuan/ton, down 46.5 yuan or 2.76%, with a total trading volume of 70,334 lots and a total open interest of 42,455 lots [2]. 3.2 Market Review - Futures Market: Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated. After the Spring Festival, the iron ore price made up for the decline, and then the release of the Shanghai property market policy boosted market sentiment, leading to a rebound in the futures price [4]. - Spot Market: At Rizhao Port, the price of PB powder was reported at 748 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 4 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 639 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week-on-week. The price difference between high and low-grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 109 yuan/ton [4]. - Demand Side: Last week, the molten iron output increased, and steel mills gradually resumed production after the Spring Festival. However, due to production restrictions in steel mills in areas such as Tangshan, the demand increase was limited. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.22%, a week-on-week increase of 0.09 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 1.93 percentage points. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 87.45%, a week-on-week increase of 1.05 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 1.87 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, a week-on-week increase of 1.30 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 10.39 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 2.3328 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 27,900 tons and a year-on-year increase of 53,400 tons [1][4]. - Supply Side: Last week, overseas shipments increased, while the arrivals decreased week-on-week. Since the Spring Festival, port clearance has remained at a high level, and inventory has continued to increase. The total global iron ore shipments were 3.3209 million tons, an increase of 631,000 tons compared to February 9 - 15. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2.7133 million tons, an increase of 598,400 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 17.8913 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 159,180 tons, and the daily average clearance volume was 313,530 tons, a decrease of 53,640 tons [1][5]. 3.3 Industry News - The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will stop collecting tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) at 12:01 am Eastern Time (13:01 Beijing Time) on Tuesday, as the US Supreme Court has ruled these tariffs illegal [10]. - On February 21, local time, US President Trump announced on his social platform "Truth Social" that he would increase the import tariff on global goods from 10% to 15% [10]. - On February 25, Shanghai issued the "Seven Measures for the Property Market", further reducing housing purchase restrictions. For non - local household or single adult individuals buying housing within the outer ring, the required period of social insurance or personal income tax payment has been adjusted to at least 1 year continuously before the purchase date [10]. - On March 1, local time, US President Trump stated that the military operation against Iran may last about four weeks. The leaders of the UK, France, and Germany issued a joint statement indicating that they may take "necessary defensive actions" against Iran [10]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 26 charts, including the national steel mill profitability rate, daily average molten iron output, global iron ore shipments, port inventory, and iron ore monthly spread seasonal charts [9][11][12] etc.