利多因素提振，橡胶偏强运行

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, domestic Shanghai rubber futures and standard rubber futures were supported by bullish expectations such as the suspension of tapping in production areas and the resumption of work in the tire industry, showing a strong trend. Synthetic rubber futures were dragged down by the weakening price of butadiene, performing weakly. The Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract showed a volatile upward trend, with the cumulative price increase of the week reaching 5.15% to 17,155 yuan/ton; the standard rubber futures 2604 contract also showed a volatile upward trend, with the cumulative price increase of the week reaching 4.44% to 13,765 yuan/ton; the synthetic rubber futures 2604 contract showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with the cumulative price increase of the week reaching 0.32% to 12,630 yuan/ton [7][16][17]. - The military conflict between the US and Iran in the Middle East over the weekend led to a rapid increase in geopolitical risks. Iran announced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the price of crude oil futures opened sharply higher. Against the backdrop of prominent cost factors, downstream energy and chemical commodity futures will be strongly driven upwards. Supported by the bullish atmosphere in the energy and chemical sector, the Shanghai rubber futures will be indirectly boosted to strengthen. It is expected that domestic rubber futures will maintain a strong stance in the future [7][58]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Spot Price Oscillated and Rebounded, Basis Widened - In the week of February 27, 2026, the spot reference price of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) oscillated around 16,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week small increase of 700 yuan/ton. The basis between the spot reference price and the Shanghai rubber 2605 contract futures price maintained a slightly wider discount. As of the week of February 27, 2026, the basis was at a discount of 205 yuan/ton [11]. 3.1.2 Futures Price Rose, Monthly Spread Turned to Premium - After the holiday, domestic Shanghai rubber futures and standard rubber futures were supported by bullish expectations such as the suspension of tapping in production areas and the resumption of work in the tire industry, showing a strong trend. Synthetic rubber futures were dragged down by the weakening price of butadiene, performing weakly. The Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract showed a volatile upward trend, with the cumulative price increase of the week reaching 5.15% to 17,155 yuan/ton; the standard rubber futures 2604 contract also showed a volatile upward trend, with the cumulative price increase of the week reaching 4.44% to 13,765 yuan/ton; the synthetic rubber futures 2604 contract showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with the cumulative price increase of the week reaching 0.32% to 12,630 yuan/ton [16][17]. 3.2 The Supply - Demand Situation of the Rubber Market Remained Weak 3.2.1 The Output of Rubber - Producing Countries Recovered Steadily, Increasing Supply Pressure - According to the latest January report released by the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), in December 2025, the total rubber production of ANRPC member countries reached 1.1278 million tons, a month - on - month small decrease of 43,600 tons and a year - on - year small decrease of 164,400 tons, with a decline of 12.72%. From January to December 2025, the total rubber production of ANRPC member countries reached 11.5202 million tons, a small decrease of 112,500 tons compared with 11.6327 million tons in the same period of last year, with a decline of 0.97%. In December 2025, the total natural rubber consumption of ANRPC member countries reached 956,300 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 1,600 tons and a year - on - year small decrease of 30,400 tons, with a decline of 3.08%. From January to December 2025, the total natural rubber consumption of ANRPC member countries reached 11.0672 million tons, a small decrease of 141,200 tons compared with 11.2084 million tons in the same period of last year, with a decline of 1.26% [30]. - In December 2025, Thailand's rubber production reached 494,200 tons, a month - on - month small increase of 10,900 tons and a year - on - year small decrease of 83,400 tons. In 2025, Thailand's total rubber production reached 4.7964 million tons, a year - on - year small increase of 30,500 tons, with an increase of 0.64%. Indonesia's rubber production in December 2025 reached 189,300 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 8,000 tons and a year - on - year small decrease of 11,500 tons. In 2025, Indonesia's total rubber production reached 2.2299 million tons, a year - on - year small decrease of 115,000 tons, with a decline of 4.90%. Malaysia's rubber production in December 2025 reached 22,000 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 1,100 tons and a year - on - year small decrease of 16,300 tons. In 2025, Malaysia's total rubber production reached 329,900 tons, a year - on - year small decrease of 56,400 tons, with a decline of 14.60%. Vietnam's rubber production in December 2025 reached 151,000 tons, a month - on - month small increase of 16,000 tons and a year - on - year slight increase of 8,400 tons. In 2025, Vietnam's total rubber production reached 1.2464 million tons, a year - on - year small decrease of 50,200 tons, with a decline of 3.87%. China's rubber production in December 2025 reached 51,200 tons, a month - on - month small decrease of 84,500 tons and a year - on - year small decrease of 16,200 tons. In 2025, China's total rubber production reached 909,700 tons, a year - on - year small increase of 33,500 tons, with an increase of 3.82%. India's rubber production in December 2025 reached 100,000 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 1,000 tons and a year - on - year slight decrease of 9,000 tons, with a decline of 8.26%. In 2025, India's total rubber production reached 891,000 tons, a year - on - year small increase of 15,000 tons, with an increase of 1.71%. In 2025, Cambodia's rubber production reached 425,800 tons, a year - on - year small increase of 18,600 tons. The Philippines' rubber production reached 187,900 tons, a year - on - year small increase of 12,300 tons [31][32]. - In terms of exports in December 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports reached 366,700 tons, a month - on - month small increase of 30,200 tons and a year - on - year slight decrease of 3,100 tons. In 2025, Thailand's total natural rubber exports reached 4.1095 million tons, a year - on - year significant increase of 169,400 tons, with an increase of 4.30%. Indonesia's natural rubber exports in December 2025 reached 145,400 tons, a month - on - month small increase of 21,100 tons and a year - on - year slight decrease of 8,300 tons. In 2025, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports reached 1.7242 million tons, a year - on - year small increase of 59,500 tons, with an increase of 3.57%. Malaysia's natural rubber exports in December 2025 reached 103,300 tons, a month - on - month small increase of 21,700 tons and a year - on - year slight increase of 300 tons. In 2025, Malaysia's total natural rubber exports reached 1.0588 million tons, a year - on - year small decrease of 42,600 tons, with a decline of 3.87%. Vietnam's natural rubber exports in December 2025 reached 170,000 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 5,400 tons and a year - on - year small decrease of 51,400 tons, with a decline of 23.22%. In 2025, Vietnam's total natural rubber exports reached 1.7191 million tons, a year - on - year small decrease of 165,700 tons, with a decline of 8.79% [33]. 3.2.2 Tire Operating Rate Slightly Rebounded - Affected by factors such as export decline and trade barriers, in November 2025, the output of Chinese rubber tire casings was 101.828 million, a year - on - year small decrease of 2.6%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of Chinese rubber tire casings reached 1.103115 billion, a year - on - year slight increase of 0.6%, and the growth rate slowed down significantly compared with the first half of the year. - As of February 27, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 30.77%, a month - on - month increase of 18.57 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 49.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 26.04%, a month - on - month increase of 13.67 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 42.11 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased significantly compared with the previous period. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will still have a significant increase in the next period [38][40]. 3.2.3 Automobile Market Sales Improved Significantly - In January 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively. The production increased by 0.01% year - on - year, and the sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year, with a month - on - month decrease of 25.7% and 28.3% respectively. Specifically, the passenger car market declined. In January, the production and sales of passenger cars were 2.062 million and 1.988 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 4.1% and 6.8% respectively, and a month - on - month decrease of 28.4% and 30.2% respectively. The commercial vehicle market continued to improve. In January, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 388,000 and 359,000 respectively, a year - on - year increase of 29.9% and 23.5% respectively, and a month - on - month decrease of 6.8% and 15.6% respectively. The new energy vehicle market operated steadily. In January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.041 million and 945,000 respectively, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% and 0.1% respectively, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 40.3% of the total sales of new vehicles. - In the terminal retail link, the "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Warning Index Survey" VIA released by the China Automobile Dealers Association showed that in January 2026, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 59.4%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 1.7 percentage points, and the inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line. - In January 2026, China's logistics industry prosperity index (LPI) was 51.2%, a month - on - month slight decrease of 1.2 percentage points, and still in the expansion range above 50%. In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles, basically the same as in December 2025, and a significant increase of about 39% compared with 72,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. It is expected that the wholesale sales of the heavy - truck industry in the first quarter of this year will increase slightly year - on - year [42][43]. 3.2.4 Shanghai Futures Exchange Inventory Rebounded, and Qingdao Bonded Area Inventory Increased - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the Shanghai rubber futures inventory increased slightly week - on - week, and the registered warehouse receipts increased significantly week - on - week. The weekly inventory was 124,980 tons, a small increase of 400 tons compared with the week of February 13; the weekly registered warehouse receipts were 114,470 tons, a significant increase of 1,900 tons compared with the week of February 13. - According to Longzhong Information statistics, as of February 23, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 667,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 61,000 tons, with an increase of 10.05%. The bonded area inventory was 110,800 tons, with an increase of 12%; the general trade inventory was 556,900 tons, with an increase of 9.67%. The warehousing rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse increased by 6.8 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 1.38 percentage points; the warehousing rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 2.65 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 4.36 percentage points [56]. 3.3 Conclusion - Due to the military conflict between the US and Iran in the Middle East over the weekend, the geopolitical risk increased rapidly. Iran announced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the price of crude oil futures opened sharply higher. Against the backdrop of prominent cost factors, downstream energy and chemical commodity futures will be strongly driven upwards. Supported by the bullish atmosphere in the energy and chemical sector, the Shanghai rubber futures will be indirectly boosted to strengthen. It is expected that domestic Shanghai rubber futures will maintain a strong stance on Monday [58].