Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short term, copper prices have strong support but increased volatility risks. Aluminum prices also have strong support, and geopolitical risks will amplify price fluctuations. Lead prices may be supported by strategic stockpiling by battery manufacturers, but the recovery of downstream demand after the holiday needs to be observed. Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum based on relative valuation in the short term but will return to the weak industrial reality after the macro - disturbance subsides. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see. Nickel prices are expected to rise slowly and oscillate in the medium term and oscillate in the short term. Carbonate lithium spot supply may remain tight, but attention should be paid to the risk of price correction. Alumina futures prices may maintain wide - range oscillations. Stainless steel is expected to maintain an oscillating upward pattern. Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to rise in the short term [3][5][8][11][13][16][19][22][26][29] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Information: On Friday, copper prices rose first and then fell. LME copper 3M contract closed up 0.28% to $13,296/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 103,280 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 100 to 253,700 tons, and the domestic SHFE weekly inventory increased by 119,000 tons compared with before the Spring Festival. The spot discount in the East China region expanded, while that in the Guangdong region narrowed [2] - Strategic Views: Geopolitical disturbances strengthen the attributes of key mineral resources and increase the risk of supply interruption, providing strong support for copper prices. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts in the US is low, and the sentiment in China is positive. The TC of copper mines is running at a low level, the supply of copper mines is tight, and the downstream start - up rate has slightly recovered. The short - term copper price has strong support, but the volatility risk increases. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 102,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton, and that for the LME copper 3M contract is $13,200 - 13,800/ton [3] Aluminum - Market Information: On Friday, aluminum prices oscillated. LME aluminum 3M contract remained stable at $3,141/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 23,730 yuan/ton. The SHFE weighted contract position increased by 11,000 tons to 664,000 tons, and the futures warehouse receipt increased by 1,000 tons to 289,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum ingots in three regions increased, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased slightly. The processing fee of aluminum rods fluctuated, and the trading atmosphere was still relatively flat. The spot discount in the East China region narrowed, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 466,000 tons [4] - Strategic Views: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory has increased to a relatively high level, but it is expected to peak earlier than in previous years. Geopolitical conflicts increase the risk of aluminum supply in the Middle East, and a South African aluminum plant is expected to shut down for maintenance in March. With the high premium of North American aluminum spot and the relatively low LME inventory, aluminum prices have strong support, and geopolitical risks will amplify price fluctuations. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 23,400 - 24,500 yuan/ton, and that for the LME aluminum 3M contract is $3,100 - 3,300/ton [5][6] Lead - Market Information: Before the Spring Festival, the SHFE lead index closed down 1.39% to 16,700 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the LME lead 3M contract closed down 0.51% to $1,966.5/ton. The LME lead inventory increased by 54,200 tons to 287,100 tons, and the domestic lead inventory also increased. The domestic - foreign price ratio and import profit and loss were also reported [7] - Strategic Views: The visible inventory of lead ore has declined slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the processing fee of lead concentrate remains at a low level. The inventory of waste batteries continues to rise. During the Spring Festival, geopolitical and trade factors affected the market. The current lead price is close to the lower edge of the long - term oscillation range. The strategic stockpiling expectation of battery manufacturers may support the short - term stabilization of lead prices, and the recovery of downstream demand after the holiday needs to be observed [8] Zinc - Market Information: Before the Spring Festival, the SHFE zinc index closed down 5.53% to 24,255 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the LME zinc 3M contract closed up 0.76% to $3,378/ton. The LME zinc inventory was 101,700 tons, and the domestic zinc inventory increased. The domestic - foreign price ratio and import profit and loss were also reported [9] - Strategic Views: The visible inventory of zinc ore has slowed down in accumulation, and the TC of zinc concentrate has stopped falling and stabilized. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory has begun to accumulate, the downstream start - up is average, and the finished product inventory of some enterprises has risen rapidly. The zinc industry is weak. In the short term, zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum based on relative valuation, but will return to the weak industrial reality after the macro - disturbance subsides [10][11] Tin - Market Information: On February 27, tin prices rose sharply. The SHFE tin main contract closed at 453,240 yuan/ton, up 9.22% from the previous day. The SHFE and LME inventories decreased. On the supply side, the situation in northern Myanmar was tense, but there was no impact on production for the time being. The start - up rate of smelters in Yunnan decreased during the Spring Festival and recovered slowly after the festival, and the supply of refined tin was tight in Jiangxi. On the demand side, the actual demand has not yet effectively emerged, and the downstream purchasing intention has weakened after the price rise [12] - Strategic Views: Under the background of macro - easing and rising semiconductor prices, the market sentiment for buying tin is strong, but attention should be paid to the current situation of marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and steady recovery of inventory. It is not advisable to blindly chase the high. In the short term, the intensification of the US - Iran conflict may put pressure on risk assets, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 390,000 - 480,000 yuan/ton, and that for the overseas LME tin is $48,000 - 55,000/ton [13] Nickel - Market Information: On February 27, the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 138,660 yuan/ton, down 0.37% from the previous day. The spot premium of each brand remained stable. The price of nickel ore remained unchanged, and the price of nickel iron continued to rise [14] - Strategic Views: In the medium term, the implementation of Indonesia's RKAB quota reduction policy will raise the price center of nickel ore, and nickel prices are expected to rise slowly and oscillate. In the short term, the contradiction between spot supply and demand is limited, and the inventory is still slightly increasing. It is expected that the price will oscillate to digest the inventory pressure. The short - term reference range for SHFE nickel prices is 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and that for the LME nickel 3M contract is $16,000 - 20,000/ton. It is recommended to buy on dips [16] Carbonate Lithium - Market Information: On February 27, the MMLC spot index of carbonate lithium closed down 0.81% from the previous working day, but up 19.72% within the week. The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium decreased, and the price of the LC2605 contract increased. The price of imported lithium concentrate decreased slightly but increased within the week [18] - Strategic Views: During the Spring Festival, the domestic carbonate lithium inventory decreased, and the downstream demand in the off - season was resilient. The third - party survey shows that the downstream production schedule in March is expected to increase more significantly than that of salt factories, and the spot supply is expected to remain tight. The recent export ban in Zimbabwe has boosted market sentiment, but if the export of concentrates is resumed within a month, the impact on the domestic lithium salt supply will be limited. After continuous rises, attention should be paid to the risk of price correction. The reference range for the main contract of carbonate lithium on the GZFE is 168,000 - 184,000 yuan/ton [19] Alumina - Market Information: On February 27, 2026, the alumina index fell 2.54% to 2,758 yuan/ton, and the unilateral trading position increased. The spot price in Shandong rose, and the import window was close to opening. The futures warehouse receipt decreased, and the price of ore in Guinea remained stable while that in Australia decreased [21] - Strategic Views: The increase in maintenance and delay in production have led to a contraction in the inventory accumulation rate. The ore supply surplus continues, and the high - level registration of warehouse receipts due to the premium on the disk suppresses the upward movement of the disk price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the futures price may maintain wide - range oscillations. Attention should be paid to potential driving factors such as the production reduction of Guinea's mines or the government's price - support actions and the implementation of supply - contraction policies in the smelting end. The reference range for the domestic main contract A02605 is 2,650 - 2,850 yuan/ton [22][23] Stainless Steel - Market Information: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,205 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained stable, and the raw material prices increased. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased significantly [25] - Strategic Views: After the festival, the arrival of steel mill resources and the stagnation of sales during the Spring Festival have led to a rapid accumulation of social inventory, increasing the supply - side pressure. The market purchasing atmosphere has improved, but the actual purchase by downstream users is still small, and most are still in the stage of resuming work. It is expected that stainless steel will maintain an oscillating upward pattern, and the reference range for the main contract is 13,900 - 14,500 yuan/ton [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: On Friday, the cast aluminum alloy price oscillated. The main AD2604 contract closed slightly up 0.09% to 22,730 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position increased slightly, the trading volume decreased, and the warehouse receipt decreased. The domestic mainstream ADC12 price oscillated and declined, and the import price remained stable. The inventory decreased [28] - Strategic Views: The cost - side price of cast aluminum alloy is strong. With the resumption of work and production of downstream enterprises after the festival, the demand is expected to continue to improve. Coupled with supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the short - term price is expected to rise [29]
有色金属日报-20260302
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-03-02 02:34