商品期权周报：2026年第9周-20260302

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading activity in the commodity options market continued to decline this week. The average daily trading volume was 5.47 million contracts, and the average daily open interest was 7.12 million contracts, with环比 decreases of 17.45% and 13.28% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][8]. - In the first week after the holiday, most underlying assets of commodity options rose. Tin, silver, and lithium carbonate had relatively high weekly increases, while polysilicon, caustic soda, and alumina had relatively high weekly decreases [2][15]. - Market volatility decreased, with 45 varieties having current implied volatility above the 50th percentile of the past year. Some varieties had significant increases or decreases in implied volatility. Cotton, tin, crude oil, natural rubber, and lithium carbonate are at historical highs in implied volatility, while eggs and iron ore are at historical lows [2][15]. - The PCR of trading volume for lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and plastic is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on a decline. The PCR of trading volume for soybean oil, soybean meal, sugar, and palm oil is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on an increase. The PCR of open interest for asphalt, synthetic rubber, and lithium carbonate is at a historical high, while that for iron ore, sugar, methanol, copper, and aluminum is at a one - year low [3][16]. Summary by Directory 1. Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market this week was 5.47 million contracts, and the average daily open interest was 7.12 million contracts, with环比 decreases of 17.45% and 13.28% respectively [1][8]. - Actively traded varieties included PTA (380,000 contracts), lithium carbonate (360,000 contracts), and soybean meal (300,000 contracts). Varieties with significant trading volume growth were p - xylene (+324%), ferromanganese (+238%), and lithium carbonate (+212%). Varieties with significant trading volume decline were asphalt (-82%), synthetic rubber (-81%), and nickel (-73%) [1][8]. - Varieties with high average daily open interest were soybean meal (560,000 contracts), glass (530,000 contracts), and soda ash (490,000 contracts). Varieties with rapid growth in average daily open interest were fuel oil (+52%) and industrial silicon (+44%) [1][8]. 2. This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options Underlying Asset Price Changes - After the holiday, most underlying assets of commodity options rose. Tin (+23.27%), silver (+16.36%), and lithium carbonate (+15.33%) had high weekly increases, while polysilicon (-5.70%), caustic soda (-5.26%), and alumina (-3.41%) had high weekly decreases [2][15]. Market Volatility - Market volatility decreased, with 45 varieties having current implied volatility above the 50th percentile of the past year. Tin (+18.23pct), ferromanganese (+7.12pct), and ferrosilicon (+5.44) had significant increases in implied volatility, while silver (-14.82pct), styrene (-11.60pct), and LPG (-10.67pct) had significant decreases [2][15]. - Cotton, tin, crude oil, natural rubber, and lithium carbonate are at historical highs in implied volatility, and investors should be wary of one - sided risks and consider shorting volatility. Eggs and iron ore are at historical lows in implied volatility, and buying options has relatively high cost - effectiveness [2][15]. Options Market Sentiment - The PCR of trading volume for lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and plastic is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on a decline. The PCR of trading volume for soybean oil, soybean meal, sugar, and palm oil is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on an increase [3][16]. - The PCR of open interest for asphalt, synthetic rubber, and lithium carbonate is at a historical high, indicating a high level of bearish sentiment. The PCR of open interest for iron ore, sugar, methanol, copper, and aluminum is at a one - year low, indicating a high level of bullish sentiment [3][16]. 3. Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [22]. 3.1 Energy - Relevant charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of crude oil [24][27]. 3.2 Chemicals - PTA: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of PTA [31][35]. - Caustic Soda: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of caustic soda [39][40]. - Glass: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of glass [44][45]. - Soda Ash: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of soda ash [48][49]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silver [52][53]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of iron ore [56][57]. - Ferromanganese: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of ferromanganese [60][61]. 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of copper [65][66]. - Aluminum: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of aluminum [70][71]. 3.6 Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of soybean meal [75][76]. - Palm Oil: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of palm oil [80][81]. - Cotton: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of cotton [87][88].