宁证期货今日早评-20260302

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical conflict between Iran, the US, and Israel has escalated, which is expected to drive up the prices of crude oil, fuel oil, and gold. However, the increase in OPEC+ production will put pressure on the oil price [2][5][14]. - The fundamentals of various commodities show different trends. Some commodities like silicon iron and asphalt have limited upward drivers, while others such as palm oil and methanol are expected to have a short - term upward trend [1][4][6][7][10]. - The supply - demand relationship of different commodities varies. For example, the supply of coking coal is affected by policies, and the supply of fuel oil is affected by refinery maintenance and geopolitical factors [1][2]. Summary by Commodity Coking Coal - The average national profit per ton of coke is - 7 yuan/ton. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of coal mines will accelerate, but the supply is restricted by policies. The downstream is mainly digesting inventory. The spot is expected to be weakly stable, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [1]. Fuel Oil - In February 2026, the domestic refinery fuel oil commodity volume was 51.34 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.59 million tons, a decline of 24.42%. After offsetting the increase and decrease in supply, the fuel oil commodity volume shows a downward trend, which is beneficial for price increase. Considering the geopolitical conflict, it is advisable to operate with a bullish mindset [2]. Silicon Iron - The national inventory of silicon iron is 70,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.55%. The supply - demand of the silicon iron market is weak, and it is difficult for the futures price to maintain a high level [4]. Rebar - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 80.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 percentage points. After the festival, the rebar production is expected to recover, but the short - term inventory pressure is high, and the fundamental support is limited [4]. Crude Oil - The geopolitical conflict between Iran, the US, and Israel has escalated, which is expected to drive up the oil price. OPEC+ announced an increase in production, which will put pressure on the oil price. It is recommended to hold long positions [5]. Asphalt - In February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production was 1.023 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The refinery production reduction eases the supply pressure. The demand is affected by the off - season, and the cost may drive the price to be stronger [6]. Pig - The national pig price is still falling. The supply exceeds the demand, but the downward space of the futures price is limited. It is recommended to go long on the far - month contracts [6][7]. Palm Oil - Indonesia raised the export tax in March. Geopolitical factors are beneficial for the price increase of palm oil, and the price center is expected to move up [7]. Soybean Meal - The spot price of soybean meal is weakly stable with a slight decline. The market trading sentiment has improved slightly, and the price is expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term [7]. Copper - Chile's copper production decreased in January. The supply is constrained, and the demand is gradually recovering. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [8]. Alumina - Ghana's policy may affect the long - term bauxite trade pattern. The current supply of alumina is in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range [8]. Tin - The conflict in Myanmar affects the supply expectation. The high inventory and weak demand suppress the price, and the short - term price fluctuation may intensify [9][10]. Methanol - The domestic methanol start - up rate is at a high level, and the port inventory is high. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the inventory is expected to decline, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [10]. Soda Ash - The domestic soda ash market is stable. The supply is at a high level, the demand is average, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [11]. Plastic - The supply of LLDPE is sufficient, the production enterprise inventory is rising, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond - Global risk - aversion sentiment is rising. The stock - bond seesaw effect is beneficial for the thirty - year treasury bond, and it is recommended to maintain a volatile mindset in the short term [12]. Silver - Silver follows the passive fluctuation of gold. It is expected to fluctuate more in the short term and remain at a high - level fluctuation in the medium term [14]. Gold - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has intensified, and the risk - aversion sentiment of gold has increased. The short - term interest rate cut by the Fed is unlikely, which will drag down the gold price. Gold is expected to fluctuate more in the short term [14].