长江期货粕类油脂月报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal: Amid intensifying geopolitical conflicts, there is a contradiction between cost support and loose supply - demand. Although the price has fully factored in the expectation of loose supply - demand, there is a high probability of an upward breakthrough. It is advisable to go long on dips [5][6]. - Oils and Fats: In the short - term, due to the sharp rise in international crude oil prices caused by the tense Middle - East situation, domestic vegetable oils are expected to oscillate strongly. Among them, soybean oil is expected to outperform palm and rapeseed oils. In the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to factors such as the Middle - East situation, US biodiesel policy, palm oil production season in Malaysia, and the yield of South American soybeans in the 2025/26 season. There are risks of price decline, but overall, the general trend of oils and fats is upward [67][69][222]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Market Performance - As of February 27, the spot price in East China was 3030 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the M2605 contract closed at 2833 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 66 yuan/ton; the basis was 05 + 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [6][8]. 3.1.2 Supply - The US - Iran conflict has pushed up crude oil prices, which is expected to drive up the price of US soybean oil and support the price of US soybeans. At the same time, the increase in international freight rates supports the premium price. - US soybeans are in a strong position due to China's expected additional purchase of 8 million tons and the support of biodiesel. Brazilian premiums are around 100 cents, and the decline is limited before the sales pressure is realized. Argentina's soybean yield is expected to decline slightly due to drought [6]. 3.1.3 Demand - The domestic pig inventory remains at a high level but has entered a seasonal off - peak period, with a month - on - month decline. The poultry inventory is high. Due to the rising prices of corn and wheat, the proportion of soybean meal added to the formula has increased steadily, and overall demand remains high [6]. 3.1.4 Cost - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents/bushel. The domestic cost of soybean meal from May to August is estimated to be 2600 yuan/ton, and from July to September, it is 2730 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the second half of the year is estimated to be 2970 yuan/ton. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans has risen to around 100 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Oils and Fats 3.2.1 Market Performance - As of February 27, the palm oil main 05 contract decreased by 460 yuan/ton to 8780 yuan/ton; the soybean oil main 05 contract decreased by 56 yuan/ton to 8226 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil main 05 contract decreased by 195 yuan/ton to 9185 yuan/ton [69][71]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The tense Middle - East situation has driven up international crude oil prices and vegetable oil prices. In Malaysia, the palm oil production season has continued to decline in February, but the decline is within the normal historical range, and the export data is poor, limiting the destocking amplitude. In China, the inventory has continued to accumulate due to increased imports and weak demand [69]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The tense Middle - East situation, the expected US biodiesel policy, and the potential reduction in Argentina's soybean yield have jointly promoted the rise of US soybean oil prices. In China, the seasonal decline in soybean arrivals in February - March is conducive to the destocking of soybean oil, but the large - scale arrival of South American soybeans in March may limit the destocking amplitude [69]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The tense Middle - East situation has driven up international crude oil prices, which is expected to drive up domestic rapeseed oil prices in the short - term. However, after the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the domestic rapeseed supply - demand situation is expected to ease, and the inventory will continue to accumulate [69].