山金期货黑色板块日报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The black commodity market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with low production, low demand, and rapidly increasing inventory from a low level. The market's demand expectation for 2026 is relatively weak, and it is expected that downstream demand will gradually start after the Lantern Festival [2]. - The iron ore market is in the off - season of consumption, and it is expected to gradually enter the peak season after the Lantern Festival. Steel production is at a low level, and hot metal production has rebounded from a low level. The supply side's short - term shipments are expected to remain low, but will gradually recover with improved weather. Port inventories have reached a record high, and the downward trend in the medium - term futures price continues [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - Market Impact Factors: The attack by the US and Israel on Iran over the weekend led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices on Monday, which may have a certain emotional boost to black commodities, but the market is mainly determined by supply and demand [2]. - Supply and Demand Situation: Last week, the output of threaded rods from 247 sample steel mills continued to decline, apparent demand decreased month - on - month, and total inventory continued to rise. The total output of the top five varieties decreased significantly, inventory continued to increase, and apparent demand was at its lowest level of the year [2]. - Technical Analysis: After a significant rebound, the futures price fell back, indicating strong resistance above. Due to the low current valuation, the downward space may be limited [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and trade cautiously [2]. - Data Summary: - Price: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils showed different trends, and the spot prices also changed to varying degrees [2]. - Basis and Spread: The basis and spread of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils changed in different directions [2]. - Production: The output of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils decreased, the blast furnace operating rate and daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased slightly, and the profitability of steel mills improved [2]. - Inventory: The social and steel mill inventories of the top five varieties, threaded rods, and hot - rolled coils all increased [2]. - Apparent Demand: The apparent demand of the top five varieties decreased significantly [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Demand Situation: The market is currently in the off - season of consumption, and it is expected to gradually enter the peak season after the Lantern Festival. Last week, the output of the top five steel products from 247 sample steel mills continued to decline, and the daily hot metal output increased month - on - month. The market is more concerned about the spring consumption demand [4]. - Supply Situation: Affected by seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere, short - term shipments are expected to remain low, but will gradually recover with improved weather. The arrival volume has rebounded, and port inventories have continued to rise and reached a record high [4]. - Technical Analysis: After a short - term rebound, the futures price continued to fall, and the medium - term downward trend continued [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold short positions lightly [4]. - Data Summary: - Price: The spot and futures prices of iron ore showed different trends [4]. - Basis, Spread, and Variety Spread: The basis, futures monthly spread, and variety spread of iron ore changed in different directions [4]. - Shipping Volume: The shipping volumes from Australia and Brazil decreased [4]. - Freight and Exchange Rate: The freight rates and exchange rates of iron ore changed to varying degrees [4]. - Arrival and Port Inventory: The arrival volume decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased [4]. 3.3 Industry News - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will promote the ultra - low emission transformation of key industries in 2026, including 100 million tons of cement clinker and 50 million tons of coking production capacity, and will also carry out inspections and rectifications of pollution control facilities and traditional industrial clusters in key regions [6]. - According to Mysteel statistics, the inventory of imported iron ore in 45 and 47 ports increased, the daily port clearance volume decreased, the number of ships in port decreased, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased slightly, the profitability of steel mills improved, and the daily hot metal output increased [6].