西南期货早间评论-20260302

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. The monetary policy is expected to remain loose, and the market outlook still faces certain pressure, so caution is advised [7][8]. - The domestic stock index is expected to have a gradually rising central fluctuation level, and long positions can be continued to hold [10]. - The precious metal market is expected to have significantly amplified volatility, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [13]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and pay attention to position management [15]. - The crude oil and fuel oil markets are recommended to focus on long - buying opportunities [24][27][28][29]. - The polyolefin market is advised to be observed for now [30][31]. - The synthetic rubber, natural rubber, PVC, copper, and aluminum markets are expected to be in a moderately strong and volatile state [32][33][34][35][36][37][39][57][58][59][60]. - The zinc market is expected to move in a volatile manner [61][62]. - The lead market is expected to be in a weakly volatile state [63][64]. - The tin market has support at the bottom, but attention should be paid to controlling risks due to the uncertainty of overseas situations [65][66]. - For the nickel market, attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia and macro - event disturbances [67]. - For the soybean meal and palm oil markets, long - buying opportunities at low - cost support levels can be considered, and the palm oil market can also adopt a long - biased approach [68][69][70][71]. - The cotton market is expected to be strong in the medium - to - long term [75][76][77]. - The sugar market is advised to be observed [78][79][80]. - The apple market is expected to have a strong price trend in the medium - to - long term [81][82][83]. - The pig market is expected to continue its weak performance, and it is advisable to wait for opportunities to short at high levels [84][85]. - The egg market is advised to hold short positions for the far - month contracts [86][87]. - The corn and corn starch markets should wait for the release of post - holiday supply pressure, and the corn starch market is expected to follow the corn market [88][89][90]. - The log market should focus on external quotes, shipping dynamics, and downstream consumption [92][93]. Summary by Directory Pulp - The main contract price fell 1.28% to 5246 yuan/ton. The inventory continued to accumulate, with a 9.38% week - on - week increase. The downstream has rigid demand for restocking, and the external cost is high, which supports the price. The future increase depends on the downstream demand [54][55]. Lithium Carbonate - The main contract fell 0.61% to 176040 yuan/ton. The supply - demand balance is being reshaped, and there is short - term support at the bottom, but the short - term volatility may increase. Attention should be paid to relevant events and data [56]. Copper - The main contract rose 0.45% to 103280 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is complex, and the supply is restricted. The demand shows seasonal recovery and structural differentiation. The inventory pressure is high, and the price may be moderately strong and volatile in the short term [57][58]. Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 0.11% to 23730 yuan/ton, and the alumina contract fell 0.4%. The alumina market is oversupplied, and the aluminum price may be moderately strong and volatile under the influence of macro - factors and energy prices, but the upside is limited by high inventory [59][60]. Zinc - The main contract fell 0.53% to 24445 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase, the demand recovery is slow, and the inventory may accumulate. The fundamentals lack driving force, and the price may move in a volatile manner [61][62]. Lead - The main contract fell 0.12% to 16770 yuan/ton. The supply recovery is restricted, the demand is weak, the inventory is high, and the price may be weakly volatile [63][64]. Tin - The main contract rose 5.65% to 455610 yuan/ton. The supply tightness has eased, the demand has support, and the inventory has decreased. The overseas situation is uncertain, and attention should be paid to risk control [65][66]. Nickel - The main contract fell 0.51% to 138660 yuan/ton. There is a shortage expectation of nickel ore, but the consumption is not optimistic, and the inventory is relatively high. Attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia and macro - events [67]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract was flat at 2833 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 0.17% to 8226 yuan/ton. The soybean supply is relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal has moderate growth, and the demand for soybean oil has improved. Different investment strategies can be adopted [68][69]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil rose slightly. The export is sluggish, and the domestic inventory is stable. A long - biased approach can be considered [70][71]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed meal price in Guangxi fell 20 to 2350, and the rapeseed oil price in Guangxi remained stable at 10130. The rapeseed oil market can consider a long - biased approach [72][73][74]. Cotton - The domestic cotton futures rose first and then fell, and the external cotton rose slightly. The new - year global cotton is expected to reduce production and enter the de - stocking cycle. The domestic supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is resilient. The price is expected to be strong in the medium - to - long term [75][76][77]. Sugar - The domestic sugar futures fell slightly, and the external sugar was weakly volatile. The overseas situation is favorable, but the domestic supply is sufficient. It is advisable to observe [78][79][80]. Apple - The apple futures fluctuated, and the spot market was stable. The inventory this year is low and the quality is poor. The price is expected to be strong in the medium - to - long term [81][82][83]. Live Pigs - The main contract rose 0.57% to 11485 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is high, and the price is expected to be weak. It is advisable to wait for opportunities to short at high levels [84][85]. Eggs - The main contract rose 0.65% to 3267 yuan/500kg. The supply in March is expected to remain at a relatively high level. It is advisable to hold short positions for the far - month contracts [86][87]. Corn & Starch - The corn main contract rose 0.68% to 2360 yuan/ton, and the corn starch main contract rose 0.11% to 2667 yuan/ton. The corn supply pressure needs to be released, and the corn starch market is expected to follow the corn market [88][89][90]. Logs - The main contract rose 0.44% to 798.5 yuan/ton. The shipping volume has returned to normal, and the demand is gradually recovering. Attention should be paid to external quotes, shipping dynamics, and downstream consumption [92][93].