原油周报：地缘风险扰动，原油强势运行-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, as the US and Iran conducted the third round of indirect negotiations, geopolitical risks in the Middle East gradually cooled down, and crude oil gave back some of its premium. Combined with the end of the peak winter heating demand season in the Northern Hemisphere, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a trend of rising and then giving back some gains, with a strong oscillation at a high level. The weekly cumulative increase of the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 reached 6.01% to 488.4 yuan per barrel [4][13][14]. - As the US and Israel launched military attacks on Iran, geopolitical risks in the Middle East quickly heated up. Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and energy supplies such as crude oil and natural gas could not be transported out of the Middle East. Crude oil premiums may rise significantly. Although OPEC+ oil - producing countries announced that they would resume production increases in the second quarter, short - term geopolitical factors outweighed the weak supply - demand fundamentals of crude oil. Driven by positive factors, international crude oil futures prices rose sharply, which may drive domestic crude oil futures to open sharply higher and run strongly on Monday. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures may maintain a strong trend in the future. Be vigilant about the US announcing the release of strategic crude oil reserves to stabilize international crude oil prices [5][67]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - 1.1 Spot prices rose significantly, and the basis discount slightly converged: As of the week ending February 27, 2026, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area in China was 67.74 US dollars per barrel, equivalent to 469.0 yuan per barrel, a week - on - week increase of 28.3 yuan per barrel. The main domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 closed at 488.4 yuan per barrel, a week - on - week increase of 27.7 yuan per barrel. The discount degree slightly converged, and the basis between them was 19.5 yuan per barrel [8]. - 1.2 Geopolitical risks weakened, and crude oil gave back its premium: After the holiday, as the US and Iran conducted the third round of indirect negotiations, geopolitical risks in the Middle East gradually cooled down, and crude oil gave back some of its premium. Combined with the end of the peak winter heating demand season in the Northern Hemisphere, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a trend of rising and then giving back some gains, with a strong oscillation at a high level. The weekly cumulative increase of the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 reached 6.01% to 488.4 yuan per barrel [13][14]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Maintained an Excess Expectation, and the Production Increase Rhythm Slowed Down - 2.1 OPEC+ production increase rhythm slowed down, and the supply excess expectation remained: In April 2023, eight countries including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, etc. announced a voluntary production cut of about 1.65 million barrels per day of crude oil, and in November 2023, they announced an additional voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day of crude oil. These two production cut measures were extended many times. However, during this period, the crude oil production of countries such as the US and Canada increased, causing OPEC to lose some market share. Since the second quarter of 2025, eight major OPEC+ oil - producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia launched a systematic and phased production increase policy, shifting their production strategy from "production cut to maintain prices" in the past two years to "production increase to stabilize the market and compete for market share". The actual production of OPEC showed that the strong production increase expectation was fulfilled. In December 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 28.564 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 105,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 1.874 million barrels per day [23][24][25]. - 2.2 Non - OPEC oil - producing countries' production capacity maintained a high level: The capacity expansion of non - OPEC+ countries further exacerbated the supply excess. The production of South American oil - producing countries represented by Brazil and Guyana continued to rise, and US shale oil showed amazing resilience. As of the week ending February 20, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 409, with a week - on - week increase of 0 and a year - on - year decrease of 79. As of the week ending February 20, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the US was 13.702 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 33,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 200,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [37]. - 2.3 The Northern Hemisphere's crude oil demand will enter the off - season: As the world's largest crude oil consumer, the US has obvious seasonal changes in crude oil demand. After mid - February, the crude oil consumption in the Northern Hemisphere will enter the off - season, the demand factor will weaken, and the inventory will change from destocking to stockpiling. EIA and IEA both predicted an oversupply of global oil in the future, and the demand growth rate in the next two years will be less than half of that in 2023. The oil consumption in India, which was expected to be the growth point of demand, declined in the first seven months of 2025 [39][40][41]. - 2.4 US crude oil inventory increased significantly, and refinery operating rates decreased slightly: As of the week ending February 20, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 435.8 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 15.989 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 5.643 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 24.899 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 881,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.212 million barrels, unchanged week - on - week. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 88.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 2.1 percentage points [42]. - 2.5 China's crude oil imports increased slightly in 2025: In 2025, China's crude oil market showed the characteristics of "record - high imports, stable production growth, and processing transformation". In December 2025, China's crude oil imports reached 55.97 million tons (13.18 million barrels per day), a year - on - year increase of 0.2%; the cumulative crude oil imports in 2025 reached 577.73 million tons (11.55 million barrels per day), a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In December 2025, China's crude oil production remained stable, and the crude oil processing speeded up. In 2026, China's crude oil consumption will enter a new stage of "stable total volume and optimized structure", with both support and restraint factors. The import volume will remain at a high level, and the consumption structure will be optimized [46][47][49]. 3.3 Global Geopolitical Conflicts Broke Out in Multiple Areas, and Crude Oil Premiums Increased - During the Spring Festival in 2026, the Middle East was in a high - risk balance of "talking and fighting at the same time". The core of the crisis was the extreme game between the US and Iran around the nuclear issue and regional dominance. The Red Sea shipping crisis resonated with the US - Iran confrontation, and the intervention of major - power games made the Middle East crisis more global. This geopolitical storm has directly pushed up international oil prices, and if the situation further escalates, oil prices may break through $100 per barrel [56][57][58]. 3.4 The Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Increased Significantly Week - on - Week - Since February 2026, international crude oil futures prices have shown a volatile and strong trend, and the market's long - making power has also increased. As of February 17, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 141,343 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 23,529 contracts and a significant increase of 68,529 contracts compared with the January average of 72,814 contracts, with an increase of 94.12%. As of February 17, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 250,016 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 526 contracts and a significant increase of 65,570 contracts compared with the January average of 184,446 contracts, with an increase of 35.55% [60]. 3.5 Conclusion - As the US and Israel launched military attacks on Iran, geopolitical risks in the Middle East quickly heated up. Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and crude oil premiums may rise significantly. Although OPEC+ oil - producing countries announced that they would resume production increases in the second quarter, short - term geopolitical factors outweighed the weak supply - demand fundamentals of crude oil. Driven by positive factors, international crude oil futures prices rose sharply, which may drive domestic crude oil futures to open sharply higher and run strongly on Monday. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures may maintain a strong trend in the future. Be vigilant about the US announcing the release of strategic crude oil reserves to stabilize international crude oil prices [67].