Asset Overview - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven up prices of precious metals and crude oil during the period from February 13 to February 27, with COMEX silver leading at a 19.8% increase, significantly outperforming gold at 5.0%[7] - Brent crude oil rose by 7.0% and WTI crude oil by 6.6% due to supply concerns stemming from the geopolitical situation[7] Equity Markets - The South Korean stock market has shown strong performance, with the KOSPI index increasing by 13.4%, marking a year-to-date gain of 48.2%[16] - Emerging markets have outperformed developed markets, with the MSCI global index rising by 1.3% during the same period[16] - A-shares performed well, with the Wind All A index up by 2.7%, and small-cap stocks like the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 both rising by 4.3%[16] Bond Markets - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bear flattening" trend, with the yield curve shifting upward and the 10Y-2Y spread narrowing to 0.42%[24] - In the U.S., the bond market showed a "bull flattening" trend, with the yield curve moving downward and the 10Y-2Y spread also narrowing[24] Commodity and Currency Trends - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.6%, while the Dow Jones fell by 1.1% during the same period[16] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.8%, with the Chinese yuan appreciating by 0.8% against the dollar, while the Japanese yen depreciated by 2.2%[7] - The South China commodity index increased by 3.6%, with significant gains in precious metals and crude oil[7] Risk Indicators - The correlation between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks has slightly decreased from 0.73 to 0.72, while the correlation between U.S. stocks and Hong Kong stocks has increased from 0.33 to 0.37[7] - The report highlights potential risks including data timeliness, significant macroeconomic changes, and unexpected asset price movements[7]
大类资产配置全球跟踪2026年3月第1期：资产概览：中东紧张局势推升贵金属 原油价格
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-02 02:35