PP：C3原料或有脉冲，PDH装置减量延续：LLDPE：原油风险加剧，上游供应或有收缩

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - For LLDPE, crude oil risks are intensifying, and upstream supply may contract. PE cost is rising due to geopolitical tensions affecting logistics and increasing the price of naphtha. There is an expected improvement in post - holiday demand for mulch films, and the packaging film industry is expected to recover after the Lantern Festival. The fundamental contradictions are currently not significant, but attention should be paid to inventory accumulation during the holiday and the post - holiday destocking rate [1][2] - For PP, C3 raw materials may have pulses, and the reduction in PDH device production continues. The cost of C3 is strongly supported due to supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia and Iran, and PDH maintenance is still high. There is no new production before the 2605 contract, intensifying the game of existing supply and demand. The overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under deep losses [1][2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - LLDPE (L2605): The previous day's closing price was 6597, with a daily decline of 1.06%, trading volume of 565011, and an increase in positions of 15671. The 05 - contract basis was - 167, and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 75. Spot prices in North, East, and South China were 6430, 6500, and 6630 yuan/ton respectively, showing a downward trend compared to the previous day [1] - PP (PP2605): The previous day's closing price was 6611, with a daily decline of 0.96%, trading volume of 484965, and a decrease in positions of 16989. The 05 - contract basis was - 111, and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 16. Spot prices in North, East, and South China were 6470, 6500, and 6670 yuan/ton respectively, also lower than the previous day [1] 2. Spot News - For PE, the linear production ratio remained stable. For PP, Zhejiang Petrochemical changed its production, and the drawing production ratio dropped from the holiday high to a neutral level. After the decline in futures prices, trading improved, but the loosening of upstream quotes limited the strengthening of the basis. Low - priced supplies from the Middle East and the US will arrive at ports in early March, but downstream buying is limited [1] 3. Market Condition Analysis - LLDPE: Geopolitical tensions over the weekend affected the logistics of oil tankers, increasing the cost of PE. There is an expected improvement in post - holiday demand for mulch films, and the packaging film industry is expected to recover after the Lantern Festival. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang has achieved mass production, the number of maintenance plans in February has decreased, and some FD has switched back to standard products. The fundamental contradictions are currently not significant [2] - PP: C3 cost is strongly supported by supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia and Iran, and PDH maintenance is still high. There is no new production before the 2605 contract, intensifying the game of existing supply and demand. Downstream demand follows up with rigid orders, and the overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited. PDH devices in South China have maintenance expectations due to deep losses, and attention should be paid to their marginal changes [2] 4. Trend Intensity - LLDPE trend intensity: 1; PP trend intensity: 2 [4]