纸浆：震荡偏强20260302

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of pulp is 1, indicating a "偏强" (relatively strong) outlook. The range of trend strength is from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]. 2. Core Viewpoint - The pulp market is in a state of shock and is expected to be relatively strong. The current supply is characterized by a game between cost support and inventory pressure, while demand is in a slow post - holiday recovery with tepid procurement sentiment [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The day - session closing price of pulp's main contract decreased by 66 yuan/ton to 5,246 yuan/ton, and the night - session closing price decreased by 32 yuan/ton to 5,240 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 5,973 hands to 172,356 hands, while the open interest of the 05 contract increased by 10,364 hands to 253,941 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 474 tons to 153,011 tons, and the net position of the top 20 members decreased by 3,483 hands to - 32,812 hands [3]. - Spread Data: The basis of "Yinxing - futures main contract" decreased by 34, and the basis of "Jinyu - futures main contract (non - standard)" increased by 66. The month - spread of SP03 - SP05 decreased by 8 [3]. - Spot Market: The domestic prices of various pulp varieties are as follows: coniferous pulp (Beimu and Kailipu at 5,500 yuan/ton, Yueguang at 5,200 yuan/ton, Yinxing at 5,250 yuan/ton, Ezhen at 5,100 yuan/ton), broad - leaf pulp (Jinyu and Mingxing at 4,600 yuan/ton, etc.), chemimechanical pulp (Kunhe at 3,800 yuan/ton), and natural pulp (Jinxing at 4,850 yuan/ton). The international price of Yinxing is 710 US dollars/ton, Mingxing is 600 US dollars/ton, and Jinxing is 620 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.2 Industry News - Supply: The cost of traders has increased due to the rise in the FOB price of broad - leaf pulp, reducing their willingness to sell at low prices. After the holiday, port inventories have increased by 206,000 tons compared to before the holiday, but the absolute increase is lower than last year, alleviating concerns about high - inventory pressure [4]. - Demand: The demand is in a slow post - holiday recovery. The operating rate of downstream paper enterprises has increased, but paper mills are mostly in a wait - and - see mode, with low enthusiasm for purchasing. The expected post - holiday concentrated restocking has not occurred. The pulp market will follow market sentiment and ignore fundamental impacts due to the impact of the US - Iran conflict on the shipping market [5].