地缘冲突升级，贵金属与能化走强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts will drive the strength of precious metals and energy - chemical sectors next week, but the sustainability of the rise depends on the duration and intensity of the US - Iran conflict. Overall, next week, energy and precious metals > chemicals > non - ferrous metals > agricultural products > real - estate - related commodities such as black metals [2][19]. - Geopolitical conflicts are the main line of trading for various commodities. In the short term, the prices of precious metals and crude oil will soar, and rising oil prices will drive up the prices of chemicals such as PTA, styrene, and PE. Methanol will also be supported by geopolitical premiums [2][19]. - Excluding geopolitical factors, there are many positive narratives for non - ferrous metals, but price increases await the recovery of demand. The crude oil market is in a state of oversupply, chemical product price increases require inventory digestion, and the fundamentals of real - estate - related commodities such as black metals are generally weak [2][20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 One - Week Review: Commodities Rose Across the Board, with Precious Metals Leading - This week (02.23 - 03.01), commodity prices generally rose. In terms of sectors: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > agricultural products > oil - chemical > black metals > coal - chemical. Geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran and uncertainties in US tariff policies led to an increase in market risk - aversion sentiment, resulting in large increases in precious metals and energy [1][11]. - The Trump administration's plan to set reference prices for key minerals boosted the sentiment of non - ferrous metals. Supply - side concerns drove up the prices of tin and lithium carbonate significantly. After the Spring Festival, demand declined, causing the prices of agricultural products such as pigs to fall, but the prices of cotton and soybean oil increased [1][11]. - Shanghai's real - estate policies boosted the sentiment of black commodities, but the effectiveness of the policies remains to be seen, and the increase in black commodities was limited. Rising oil prices supported the prices of aromatic and olefin chains, but the supply and inventory of the chlor - alkali sector were high, and downstream demand was weak, resulting in weak price performance [1][11]. 3.1.2 Next - Week Outlook: Geopolitical Conflicts Intensify, Precious Metals and Energy - Chemicals Strengthen - Geopolitical conflicts will drive the strength of precious metals, energy - chemical and other sectors, but the sustainability of the rise depends on the US - Iran conflict. The positive impact of geopolitical conflicts on the non - ferrous metals sector is weaker than that on the energy sector, but the fundamentals of the non - ferrous metals sector are stronger than those of the energy - chemical sector [2][19]. - Real - estate policies have been implemented, but domestic demand cannot improve quickly, so the upward momentum of black commodities is weak. The opportunities in the agricultural products sector are structural. Overall, next week, energy and precious metals > chemicals > non - ferrous metals > agricultural products > real - estate - related commodities such as black metals [2][19]. - Geopolitical conflicts are the main line of trading for various commodities. The US - Iran situation has deteriorated sharply, and market risk - aversion sentiment will rise. In the short term, the prices of precious metals will soar. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz will disrupt crude oil supply, and oil prices are expected to rise. Rising oil prices will drive up the prices of chemicals, and methanol will also be supported by geopolitical premiums [2][19]. - Whether precious metals and energy - chemical commodities can continue to rise depends on the US - Iran conflict. If the conflict intensifies and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, geopolitical premiums may support further price increases. If the conflict subsides quickly, the short - term price increase may present a selling opportunity [20]. - Excluding geopolitical factors, there are many positive narratives for non - ferrous metals, but price increases await the recovery of demand. The crude oil market is in oversupply, chemical product price increases require inventory digestion, and the fundamentals of real - estate - related commodities such as black metals are generally weak [20]. 3.2 Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Data Tracking - The US dollar index fell slightly, and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds declined. As of February 27, the US dollar index fell 0.10% to 97.6443 compared with February 20. The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds was 3.97%, down 11 BP from February 20. The yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year Treasury bonds was inverted by 215.1 BP [23]. - Although the US PPI in January exceeded market expectations, due to the dovish statements of some Federal Reserve officials, the expectation of interest - rate cuts increased, and the US dollar index weakened slightly. Concerns about AI impact, adjustments in US technology stocks, and rising market risk - aversion sentiment led to a decline in US Treasury bond yields [23]. - After the US - Iran conflict escalated over the weekend, the US dollar index is expected to strengthen. The RMB has been appreciating recently, but considering the strengthening of the US dollar and the reduction of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales by the Chinese central bank, the appreciation of the RMB will slow down [24]. 3.3 Upstream Raw Material Prices - Oil prices fluctuated and rose, coal prices were reported, natural gas prices fell slightly, and industrial electricity prices were also mentioned, but specific data and analysis were not elaborated in detail in the given text [32][33]. 3.4 Production - End High - Frequency Data - The blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises increased, and the daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines recovered [35]. - China's copper - tube production decreased, and China's electrolytic - aluminum production increased [36]. - The EIA US crude - oil production was mentioned, and the methanol capacity utilization rate increased. The PE capacity utilization rate increased slightly, the PTA plant operating rate increased, the PVC operating rate increased, and the operating rate of Chinese soda - ash enterprises increased slightly [37][40][42]. - The capacity utilization rate of float - glass enterprises was at a low level, the operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles increased, the operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles increased, and the production of soybean meal from all - sample enterprises' pressing plants in China increased [45][46]. 3.5 Inventory - End High - Frequency Data - After the Spring Festival, the inventories of major commodities generally increased. The copper inventories of the three major exchanges continued to accumulate beyond the seasonal norm, and the corresponding basis decreased. The apparent demand for steel decreased after the Spring Festival, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The inventories of real - estate - related commodities such as PVC, glass, and soda ash generally accumulated beyond the seasonal norm. The inventories of precious metals, coking coal, and soybean meal decreased slightly [47]. 3.6 Demand - End High - Frequency Data - Shanghai announced real - estate stabilization policies this week, and some real - estate high - frequency data improved, such as the increase in the transaction area of second - hand housing in 13 cities. However, the overall improvement did not significantly exceed the seasonal level. The net financing scale of government bonds was 560.4 billion yuan, and the issuance rhythm of government bonds this year is generally ahead of schedule, and the net financing quota of government bonds is currently basically the same as that in the same period of 2025 [60]. 3.7 Key Commodity Basis - The basis of various key commodities such as gold, copper, aluminum, rebar, iron ore, coking coal, crude oil, methanol, PTA, PVC, pig, and soybean meal was mentioned, but specific data and analysis were not elaborated in detail in the given text [70]. 3.8 Commodity Price Ratios - The price ratios of various commodities such as the gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, gold - oil ratio, copper - oil ratio, copper - aluminum ratio, steel - ore ratio, agricultural - industrial ratio, and pig - grain ratio were mentioned, but specific data and analysis were not elaborated in detail in the given text [78].