美元债双周报（26年第9周）：美以联合袭击伊朗，避险情绪驱动美债利率下行-20260302

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" rating for the U.S. stock market [5]. Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions following the U.S.-Israel military action against Iran have heightened market risk aversion, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [2]. - The implementation of a new 10% global tariff by the U.S. has raised uncertainties in international trade, impacting corporate investment decisions [1]. - The unexpected rise in the U.S. core PPI in January has complicated the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, with inflation pressures remaining persistent [3]. - The report suggests a defensive investment strategy focusing on short to medium-term bonds to mitigate risks associated with interest rate volatility and inflation [4]. Summary by Sections U.S. Treasury Market - The U.S. Treasury market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between geopolitical risk and inflation resurgence, with yields dropping below 4% due to recent military actions [4]. - The core PPI data indicates a significant inflationary pressure that could influence future monetary policy decisions [3]. Economic Indicators - January's core PPI increased by 0.8% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations and highlighting ongoing production cost pressures [3]. - The market is reassessing the likelihood of interest rate cuts, with the probability of a March rate cut now at only 7.4% [3]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends a cautious approach, advising investors to limit duration exposure and focus on 2-5 year bonds to secure stable yields while waiting for clearer economic signals [4].